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Stock market and aggregate economic activity: evidence from Australia

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  • K. Chaudhuri
  • S. Smiles

Abstract

Using the multivariate cointegration methodology, this article documents the evidence of long-run relationships between real stock price and measures of aggregate real activity including real GDP, real private consumption, real money and the real price of oil in the Australian market. Real stock return in Australia is related to temporary departures from the long-run relationship and to changes in real macroeconomic activity. The results also document that the information provided by the cointegration contain some additional information that is not already present in other sources of return variation such as term spread, future GDP growth or shocks to term spread. On the other hand, the influence of other markets, especially stock return variation in the US and New Zealand markets, significantly affects Australian stock return movements.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Chaudhuri & S. Smiles, 2004. "Stock market and aggregate economic activity: evidence from Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 121-129.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:2:p:121-129 DOI: 10.1080/0960310042000176399
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    Cited by:

    1. Chris Heaton & George Milunovich & Anthony Passé‐De Silva, 2011. "International Commodity Prices and the Australian Stock Market," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 37-44, March.
    2. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 200720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    3. Yu Hsing, 2011. "The Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables in a BRICS Country and Policy Implications," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(1), pages 12-18.
    4. Khan, Mashrur Mustaque & Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices:Evidence from the Bangladesh Stock Market," MPRA Paper 46528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ratti, Ronald A. & Hasan, M. Zahid, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and Volatility in Australian Stock Returns ‎," MPRA Paper 49043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Charles K.D. Adjasi, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and conditional stock-price volatility in frontier African markets: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 333-349, August.
    7. Nicholas Apergis & Panagiotis G. Artikis, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Risk, Equity Risk Factors and Economic Growth," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 425-445, December.
    8. Yu Hsing, 2011. "Macroeconomic Variables and the Stock Market: the Case of Lithuania," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 3(1), pages 031-037, June.
    9. Mohammad Joarder & Monir Ahmed & Tahsina Haque & Syed Hasanuzzaman, 2014. "An empirical testing of informational efficiency in Bangladesh capital market," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 63-87, February.
    10. Özge SEZGIN ALP & Fazil GÖKGÖZ & Güray KÜÇÜKKOCAOGLU, 2016. "Estimating Turkish Stock Market Returns With Apt Model: Cointegration And Vector Error Correction," Economic Review: Journal of Economics and Business, University of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 7-19, May.
    11. Isma Zaighum, 2014. "Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Non-financial firms Stock Returns: Evidence from Sectorial Study of KSE-100 Index," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(1), pages 35-48, March.
    12. repec:spt:apfiba:v:7:y:2017:i:5:f:7_5_5 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Chiou, Jer-Shiou & Lee, Yen-Hsien, 2009. "Jump dynamics and volatility: Oil and the stock markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 788-796.
    14. Alexius, Annika & Spång, Daniel, 2015. "Stocks and GDP in the long run," Research Papers in Economics 2015:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    15. Asmy, Mohamed & Rohilina, Wisam & Hassama, Aris & Fouad, Md., 2009. "Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in Malaysia: An Approach of Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 20970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Vardhan, Harsh & Sinha, Pankaj, 2015. "Influence of Macroeconomic Variable on Indian Stock Movement: Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 64369, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2015.
    17. repec:rss:jnljfm:v2i4p1 is not listed on IDEAS

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