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Mutual fund flows, expected returns, and the real economy

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  • Jank, Stephan

Abstract

The paper explores whether the co-movement of market returns and equity fund flows can be explained by a common response to macroeconomic news. I find that variables that predict the real economy as well as the equity premium are related to mutual fund flows. Changes in dividend-price ratio explain mutual fund flows beyond the information contained in returns. Further predictive variables such as default spread, relative T-Bill rate and, in particular consumption-wealth ratio also explain mutual fund flows. Mutual fund flows are, in accordance with the information-response hypothesis, forward-looking and predict real economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jank, Stephan, 2011. "Mutual fund flows, expected returns, and the real economy," CFR Working Papers 11-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1104
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aggregate mutual fund flows; equity premium; return predictability; asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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