IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Structural Cointegrating VAR Approach to Macroeconometric Modelling

This paper discusses the ?structural cointegrating VAR? approach to macroeconometric modelling and compares it to other approaches currently followed in the literature, namely, the large-scale simultaneous equation macroeconometric models, the structural VARs, and the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The structural co- integrating VAR approach has the attractive features that the estimated long-run relationships embedded in the model are theory consistent, and have a clear economic interpretation, and yet the short-run dynamics are flexibly estimated within a VAR framework. The approach is illustrated using a small quarterly macroeconomic model of the UK, and its use in impulse response analysis and probability forcasting is discussed.

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 9823.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Nov 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9823
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. A Garratt & K Lee & M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," ESE Discussion Papers 35, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  2. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1992. "Liquidity effects and the monetary transmission mechanism," Staff Report 150, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Martin Eichenbaum & Lawrence J. Christiano, 1992. "Liquidity Effects, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 4129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  6. Kenneth Kasa, 2000. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others in the Frequency Domain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 726-756, October.
  7. Plosser, C.I., 1989. "Understanding Real Business Cycles," Papers 89-03, Rochester, Business - General.
  8. Thomas F. Cooley & Jeremy Greenwood & Mehmet Yorukoglu, 1994. "The Replacement Problem," Working Papers 9408, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  9. Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1988. "The Inflation Tax In A Real Business Cycle Model," RCER Working Papers 155, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  10. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  11. Minford, Patrick & Matthews, Kent & Marwaha, Satwant, 1979. "Terminal conditions as a means of ensuring unique solutions for rational expectations models with forward expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 117-120.
  12. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & C. Hoyt Bleakley, 1996. "Computationally efficient solution and maximum likelihood estimation of nonlinear rational expectation models," Working Papers 96-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  13. Hall, Stephen, 1995. "Macroeconomics and a Bit More Reality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 974-88, July.
  14. Jordi Galí & Richard Clarida, 1993. "Sources of real exchage rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Economics Working Papers 66, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 1994.
  15. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
  16. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  17. repec:sae:niesru:v:156:y::i:1:p:72-79 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Turner, David S, 1991. "The Determinants of the Nairu Response in Simulations on the Treasury Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(3), pages 225-42, August.
  19. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
  20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & David Marshall, 1990. "The permanent income hypothesis revisited," Staff Report 129, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  21. Hercovitz, Z. & Sampson, M., 1989. "Output Growth, The Real Wage, And Employment Fluctuations," RCER Working Papers 179, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  22. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Output dynamics in real business cycle models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  23. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-78, September.
  24. Levtchenkova, S & Pagan, A R & Robertson, J C, 1998. " Shocking Stories," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 507-32, December.
  25. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  26. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  27. Brayton, Flint & Levin, Andrew & Lyon, Ralph & Williams, John C., 1997. "The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 43-81, December.
  28. repec:sae:niesru:v:156:y::i:1:p:55-62 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  30. Garratt, Anthony & Kevin Lee & M Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Forecast Uncertainties In Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 82, Royal Economic Society.
  31. Wickens, Michael, 1995. "Real Business Cycle Analysis: A Needed Revolution in Macroeconometrics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1637-48, November.
  32. Pagan, Adrian, 1987. " Three Econometric Methodologies: A Critical Appraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 3-24.
  33. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  34. Murphy, C W, 1988. "An Overview of the Murphy Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 175-99, Supplemen.
  35. Ando, Albert & Modigliani, Franco, 1969. "Econometric Analysis of Stabilization Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 296-314, May.
  36. Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, Ron P., 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9811, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  37. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "The role of theory in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 61-79, May.
  38. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Modeling Money," NBER Working Papers 6371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  40. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  41. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  42. Ray C. Fair, 1993. "Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 157-178 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, R. P., 1985. "Evaluation of macroeconometric models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 125-134, April.
  44. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  45. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
  46. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
  47. Robert B. Litterman & Laurence M. Weiss, 1984. "Money, real interest rates, and output: a reinterpretation of postwar U.S. data," Staff Report 89, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  48. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  49. F. Brayton & P. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  50. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
  51. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  52. Wren-Lewis, Simon, et al, 1996. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy: Linking an Econometric Model with Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 543-59, May.
  53. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1993. "Cointegration and Speed of Convergence to Equilibrium," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  54. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  55. Brayton, Flint & Mauskopf, Eileen, 1985. "The federal reserve board MPS quarterly econometric model of the US economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 170-292, July.
  56. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9823. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Howard Cobb)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.