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Forecast Uncertainties In Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy

  • Garratt, Anthony

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Kevin Lee

    (University of Leicester)

  • M Hashem Pesaran

    (Trinity College, Cambridge)

  • Yongcheol Shin

    (University of Edinburgh)

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macro-economic forecasts in a straightforward manner which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Point and probability forecasts obtained using a small macro-econometric model, are presented and evaluated using recursive forecasts generated from the model over the period 1999q1-2000q1. Out of sample probability forecasts of inflation and output growth are also provided over the period 2001q2-2003q1, and their implications discussed in relation to the Bank of England's inflation target and the need to avoid recessions, both as separate events and jointly. It is also shown how the probability forecasts can be used to provide insights on the inter-relationship of output growth and inflation at different horizons.

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Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 with number 82.

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Date of creation: 29 Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:82
Contact details of provider: Postal: Office of the Secretary-General, School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9AL, UK
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Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/society/annualconf.asp
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  1. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "A Structural Cointegrating VAR Approach to Macroeconometric Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9823, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Ray C. Fair, 1991. "Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconomic Models Using Stochastic Simulation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, . "Evaluating Density Forecasts," CARESS Working Papres 97-18, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
  4. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521650694 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  7. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, EconWPA.
  9. Ray C. Fair, 1978. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 480, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. repec:sae:niesru:v:167:y::i:1:p:106-112 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," ESE Discussion Papers 44, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  12. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, H., 1996. "A Decision_Theoretic Approach to Forecast Evaluation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9618, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. repec:sae:niesru:v:156:y::i:1:p:72-79 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 1998. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," FMG Discussion Papers dp306, Financial Markets Group.
  15. repec:sae:niesru:v:156:y::i:1:p:55-62 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  17. Garratt, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1998. "A Long-run Structural Macro-econometric Model of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9812, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. Jeremy Berkowitz, 1999. "Evaluating the forecasts of risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Francis X. Diebold & Jinyong Hahn & Anthony S. Tay, 1999. "Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation And Calibration In Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns On Foreign Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 661-673, November.
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