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The recent ascent of stock prices: can it be explained by earnings growth or other fundamentals?

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  • John B. Carlson
  • Kevin H. Sargent

Abstract

An analysis of the current relationship between stock prices, dividends, earnings, and returns, aimed at examining the causes of the recent stock market surge. It reveals that the markets level cannot be explained by any single fundamental element of standard stock valuation models, but rather manifests optimism about future dividend growth (based on the present record growth in earnings) and a lower expected return (reflecting a diminished risk premium for holding equity).

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Carlson & Kevin H. Sargent, 1997. "The recent ascent of stock prices: can it be explained by earnings growth or other fundamentals?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:1997:i:qii:p:2-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2001. "Explaining stock price movements: is there a case for fundamentals?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 22-34.
    2. Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano, 2004. "Financial Condition Index and interest rate settings: a comparative analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 1, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. Rapach, David E., 2001. "Macro shocks and real stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 5-26.
    4. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2016. "Industry returns, market returns and economic fundamentals: Evidence for the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 89-106.
    5. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Rizvi, Syed Aun & Sarkar, Kabir & Bacha, Obiyathulla & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "How do Macroeconomic Changes Impact Islamic and Conventional Equity Prices? Evidence from Developed and Emerging Countries," MPRA Paper 59587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2004. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices redux: a new testing strategy and some evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 208-223, May.
    7. Dean Croushore, 1999. "How useful are forecasts of corporate profits?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-12.
    8. Raphael I. Udegbunam & Hassan E. Oaikhenan, 2012. "Interest Rate Risk of Stock Prices in Nigeria," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 11(1), pages 93-113, April.
    9. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2011. "Equity prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 247-276, April.
    10. Henri Pagès, 1999. "A note on the Gordon growth model with nonstationary dividend growth," BIS Working Papers 75, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "Stock returns and real activity in the G-7 countries: did the relationship change during the 1980s?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 237-252, May.
    12. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2009. "Are fundamentals still relevant for European economies in the post-Euro period?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 835-850, September.
    13. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "How important are fundamentals?--Evidence from a structural VAR model for the stock markets in the US, Japan and Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 185-201, April.
    14. Fourçans André & Warin Thierry & Evans John T. & Hens Luc & Saenen Bert & Abid Fathi & Mikhail Azmi D. & Salehizadeh Mehdi, 2000. "Global Economy Quarterly, Issue 3," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 109-109, December.

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