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Financial Condition Index And Interest Rate Settings: A Comparative Analysis

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  • Alberto Montagnoli
  • Oreste Napolitano

Abstract

In the last thirty years, there has been a widespread move towards financial liberalisation, both within and across national borders. This economic development brought researchers to investigate the link between asset prices, inflation and the conduct of monetary policy. Starting from the seminal work of Alchian and Klein (1973) it is often argued that the forward-looking nature of asset prices makes them good proxies for the information left out of conventional inflation measures. It is also widely accepted that asset price inflation developments are closely associated with general inflation trends. This paper investigates the role of asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy in United States, Canada, Euro Area and United Kingdom. It has two focal points. First, we construct Financial Condition Indexes for four countries using the Kalman Filter algorithm. This methodology allows us to capture the changes of the weights associated with each financial variable in explaining the output gap over time. Second, we proceed by estimating forward-looking Taylor rules augmented for FCI. Our results suggest that the Financial Condition Index enter positively and statistically significant into the FED, Bank of England and Bank of Canada interest rate setting. This gives a positive view for the use of the FCI as an important short term indicator to guide the conduct of monetary policy in three out of four countries analyzed.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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  • Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano, 2005. "Financial Condition Index And Interest Rate Settings: A Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 8_2005, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:prt:wpaper:8_2005
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    Cited by:

    1. Angelopoulou, Eleni & Balfoussia, Hiona & Gibson, Heather D., 2014. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: What does it tell us about the crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 392-403.
    2. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2013. "Banking System Resilience and Financial Stability - An Evidence from Indian Banking," MPRA Paper 49597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kirsten Thompson & Renee Van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Identifying an index of financial conditions for South Africa," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 256-274, June.
    4. Yosra Baaziz, 2015. "Estimating Interest Rate Setting Behavior in Brazil: A LSTR Model Approach," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 1-17, April.
    5. Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia & Nancy Zamudio, 2011. "Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 29(66), pages 174-220, December.
    6. Castro, Vítor, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 872, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    7. Oreste Napolitano, 2006. "Is The Impact Of Ecb Monetary Policy On Emu Stock Market Returns Asymmetric?," Working Papers 3_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    8. Akira Kohsaka & Jun-ichi Shinkai, 2014. "East Asian Financial Cycles: Asian vs. Global Financial Crises," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    9. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2015. "Financial markets and the response of monetary policy to uncertainty in South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 255-278, August.
    10. Mirna Dumičić & Ivo Krznar, 2013. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity," Working Papers 37, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    11. Kirsten Thompson & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Identifying a financial conditions index for South Africa," Working Papers 201333, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2013. "Banking System Resilience and Financial Stability," MPRA Paper 47512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.
    14. repec:agr:journl:v:3(612):y:2017:i:3(612):p:147-172 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jan Willem van den End, 2006. "Indicator and boundaries of financial stability," DNB Working Papers 097, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    16. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-62 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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