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Financial Condition Index And Interest Rate Settings: A Comparative Analysis

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  • Alberto Montagnoli
  • Oreste Napolitano

Abstract

In the last thirty years, there has been a widespread move towards financial liberalisation, both within and across national borders. This economic development brought researchers to investigate the link between asset prices, inflation and the conduct of monetary policy. Starting from the seminal work of Alchian and Klein (1973) it is often argued that the forward-looking nature of asset prices makes them good proxies for the information left out of conventional inflation measures. It is also widely accepted that asset price inflation developments are closely associated with general inflation trends. This paper investigates the role of asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy in United States, Canada, Euro Area and United Kingdom. It has two focal points. First, we construct Financial Condition Indexes for four countries using the Kalman Filter algorithm. This methodology allows us to capture the changes of the weights associated with each financial variable in explaining the output gap over time. Second, we proceed by estimating forward-looking Taylor rules augmented for FCI. Our results suggest that the Financial Condition Index enter positively and statistically significant into the FED, Bank of England and Bank of Canada interest rate setting. This gives a positive view for the use of the FCI as an important short term indicator to guide the conduct of monetary policy in three out of four countries analyzed.

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Paper provided by D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy in its series Working Papers with number 8_2005.

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Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:prt:wpaper:8_2005
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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  1. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," CDMA Working Paper Series 200403, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  9. Charles Bean, 2003. "Asset Prices, Financial Imbalances and Monetary Policy: Are Inflation Targets Enough?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2001. "Financial conditions indexes," Research Discussion Papers 17/2001, Bank of Finland.
  11. Michael M. Hutchison, 1993. "Asset price fluctuations in Japan: what role for monetary policy?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 93-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  13. A. Kontonikas & A. Montagnoli, 2002. "Has Monetary Policy Reacted To Asset Price Movements: Evidence From The Uk," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
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Cited by:

  1. Angelopoulou, Eleni & Balfoussia, Hiona & Gibson, Heather D., 2014. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: What does it tell us about the crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 392-403.
  2. Castro, Vítor, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 872, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  3. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2013. "Banking System Resilience and Financial Stability," MPRA Paper 47512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Kirsten Thompson & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Identifying a financial conditions index for South Africa," Working Papers 201333, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  5. Jan Willem van den End, 2006. "Indicator and boundaries of financial stability," DNB Working Papers 097, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  6. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2013. "Banking System Resilience and Financial Stability - An Evidence from Indian Banking," MPRA Paper 49597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Oreste Napolitano, 2006. "Is the Impact of ECB Monetary Policy on EMU Stock Market Returns asymmetric?," Discussion Papers 1_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  8. Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia & Nancy Zamudio, 2011. "Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  9. Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.
  10. Akira Kohsaka & Jun-ichi Shinkai, 2014. "East Asian Financial Cycles: Asian vs. Global Financial Crises," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.

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