IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Monetary policy, asset prices and model uncertainty

  • Meixing DAI
  • Eleftherios SPYROMITROS

Using a macroeconomic model with asset prices, we analyze how optimal monetary policy, and macroeconomic dynamics and performance are affected by the central bank’s desire to be robust against model misspecifications. Considering the worst-case model, we show that an increase in the central bank’s preference for robustness requires a more aggressive reaction of the optimal nominal interest rate with respect to expected inflation and inflation shocks. According to the value of structural parameters, the economic equilibrium can be stable or saddle-point stable. In both cases, the speed of dynamic convergence is smaller under robust control compared to a benchmark case without it. Finally, an increase in the preference for robustness reinforces the reaction of current and expected future inflation, asset prices and output-gap to inflation shocks. However, the preference for robustness has no effect on the reaction of asset prices to the shocks affecting goods demand and financial markets.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/productions/publications/2008/2008-15.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg in its series Working Papers of BETA with number 2008-15.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2008-15
Contact details of provider: Postal:
PEGE. 61, Aven. de la Forêt-Noire 67000 Strasbourg

Phone: +33 3 68 85 20 69
Fax: +33 3 68 85 20 70
Web page: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  2. Alexandros Kontonikas & Christos Ioannidis, 2003. "Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset Price Misalignments?," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-19, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  3. repec:bth:wpaper:2005-09 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Q. Farooq Akram & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006. "Flexible inflation targeting and financial stability: Is it enough to stabilise inflation and output?," Working Paper 2006/07, Norges Bank.
  5. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kai Leitemo & Ulf Söderström, 2005. "Robust monetary policy in the New-Keynesian framework," Macroeconomics 0508032, EconWPA.
  7. Alexei Onatski & James H. Stock, 2000. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty in a Small Model of the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 7490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Marc P. Giannoni, 2007. "Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward-looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 179-213.
  9. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: some theory and empirics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Simon Gilchrist & Masashi Saito, 2006. "Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning," NBER Working Papers 12442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Andrew T. Levin & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Working Paper Series 2003-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2002. "Avoiding Nash inflation: Bayesian and robust responses to model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-9, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Asset Price Misalignments," Working Papers 2005_9, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  14. Batini, Nicoletta & Justiniano, Alejandro & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2006. "Robust inflation-forecast-based rules to shield against indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1491-1526.
  15. Conover, C. Mitchell & Jensen, Gerald R. & Johnson, Robert R., 1999. "Monetary environments and international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1357-1381, September.
  16. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Asset Prices, and Misspecification: the robust approach to bubbles with model uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 335, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Robust control of forward-looking models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 581-604, April.
  18. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1997. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications," NBER Working Papers 9420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 519-535, July.
  21. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  22. Alexandre, Fernando & Bacao, Pedro, 2005. "Monetary policy, asset prices, and uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 37-42, January.
  23. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000384, UCLA Department of Economics.
  24. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2004. "Solution of macromodels with Hansen-Sargent robust policies: some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2367-2397, December.
  25. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
  26. Disyatat, Piti, 2010. "Inflation targeting, asset prices, and financial imbalances: Contextualizing the debate," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 145-155, September.
  27. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 111-144, February.
  28. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2008-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.