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Learning, robust monetray policy and the merit of precaution

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  • Marine Charlotte André
  • Meixing Dai

Abstract

We study in a New Keynesian framework the consequences of adaptative learning for the design of robust monetary policy. Compared to rational expectations, the fact that private follows adaptative learning gives the central bank an additional intertemporal trade-off between optimal behavior thanks to ability to manipulate future inflation expectations. We show that adaptative learning imposes a more restrictive constraint on monetary policy robustness to ensure the dynamic stability of the equilibrium than under rational expectations and weakens the argument in favor of a more aggressive monetary policy when the central bank takes account of model misspecifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2016. "Learning, robust monetray policy and the merit of precaution," Working Papers of BETA 2016-54, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2016-54
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    Cited by:

    1. Meixing Dai, 2020. "La réponse de la BCE face à la pandémie de Covid-19," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 42(1), pages 5-14, July.
    2. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Meixing Dai & Claire Mainguy & Jamel Saadaoui & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Isabelle Terraz & Jamel Trabelsi, 2021. "Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 321-348, June.
    3. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2018. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers of BETA 2018-45, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    robust control; model uncertainty; adaptative learning; optimal monetary policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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