IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Learning, Monetary Policy Rules, and Macroeconomic Stability

  • Fabio Milani

    (Princeton University)

This paper estimates a DSGE model with learning to re-examine the evidence on time variation in post-war U.S. monetary policy. Several papers document a regime switch, by showing that policy changed from `passive' and destabilizing in the pre-1979 period to `active' and stabilizing in the following decades. These papers typically work with DSGE models with rational expectations. This paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and it allows for learning instead. Economic agents form expectations from simple models and update the parameters through constant-gain learning. I estimate the model by Bayesian methods. The constant gain coefficient is jointly estimated with the structural and policy parameters of the system. I find that the feedback coefficient to inflation was well above 1 also in the 1960s and 1970s and therefore policy was not leading to macroeconomic instability. The results reconcile the evidence from DSGE models with what obtained by time-varying VAR studies, which typically find only modest changes in policy coefficients over the post-war sample.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/mac/papers/0508/0508019.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0508019.

as
in new window

Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 17 Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0508019
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 43
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2004. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Working Paper Series 0337, European Central Bank.
  2. William A. Branch & John Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary policy, endogenous inattention, and the volatility trade-off," Working Paper 0411, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
  5. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, 2004. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/14, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
  6. John Duffy and Jim Engle-Warnick, 2001. "Multiple Regimes in U.S. Monetary Policy? A Nonparametric Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 151, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Peter N. Ireland, 2000. "Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle: Specification and Stability," NBER Working Papers 7511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 1995. "Recurrent hyperinflations and learning," Economics Working Papers 244, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2001.
  9. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 2007-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  11. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Working Paper Series 0115, European Central Bank.
  12. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE model: an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 0389, European Central Bank.
  13. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
  14. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-11, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 06 Apr 2005.
  15. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.
  16. Volker Wieland, 1999. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
  18. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
  19. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  20. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Adaptive Learning and Inflation Persistence," Macroeconomics 0506013, EconWPA.
  21. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  22. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion," NBER Working Papers 7087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004. "Shocks and government beliefs: the rise and fall of American inflation," Working Paper 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  24. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
  25. Bruce Preston, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
  26. Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "Learning and Monetary Policy Shifts," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 392-419, April.
  27. Bennett T. McCallum, . "Role of the minimal state variable criterion in rational expectations models," GSIA Working Papers 1999-13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  28. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "Monetary policy in an estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the Euro area," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  29. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs," Working Paper 2002-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  30. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  31. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
  33. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Preston, Bruce, 2008. "Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3661-3681, November.
  35. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2006. "Structural Changes in the US Economy: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5457, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  37. Giorgio Primiceri, 2005. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 11147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Wieland Volker, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate: Brainard-Style Conservatism versus Experimental Activism," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-34, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0508019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.