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Optimal Constrained Interest-rate Rules

Author

Listed:
  • George W. Evans

    (University of Oregon Economics Department)

  • Bruce McGough

    (Oregon State University Economics Department)

Abstract

We show that if policy-makers compute the optimal unconstrained interest-rate rule within a Taylor-type class, they may be led to rules that generate indeterminacy and/or instability under learning. This problem is compounded by uncertainty about structural parameters since an optimal rule that is determinate and stable under learning for one calibration may be indeterminate or unstable under learning under a different calibration. We advocate a procedure in which policymakers restrict attention to rules constrained to lie in the determinate learnable region for all plausible calibrations, and that minimize the expected loss, computed using structural parameter priors, subject to this constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2005. "Optimal Constrained Interest-rate Rules," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 31 May 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2005-9
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    3. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2009. "Robustifying learnability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 296-316, February.
    4. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2021. "Optimal constrained interest-rate rules under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 287-325.
    5. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. George Waters, 2017. "Nominal GDP targeting under learning," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 153-159, January.
    7. George Waters, 2011. "Dangers of commitment under rational expectations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 371-381, October.
    8. Best, Gabriela, 2015. "A New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 96-111.
    9. Evans George W & McGough Bruce, 2010. "Implementing Optimal Monetary Policy in New-Keynesian Models with Inertia," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, March.
    10. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    11. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2012. "Learning about monetary policy rules when labor market search and matching frictions matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 523-535.
    13. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Taylor rules; indeterminacy; learning; Estability; parameter uncertainty; robust rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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