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Model uncertainty and policy evaluation : some theory and empirics

Listed author(s):
  • Brock,W.A.
  • Durlauf,S.N.
  • West,K.D.

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute)

This paper explores ways to integrate model uncertainty into policy evaluation. We first describe a general framework for the incorporation of model uncertainty into standard econometric calculations. This framework employs Bayesian model averaging methods that have begun to appear in a range of economic studies. Second, we illustrate these general ideas in the context of assessment of simple monetary policy rules for some standard New Keynesian specifications. The specifications vary in their treatment of expectations as well as in the dynamics of output and inflation. We conclude that the Taylor rule has good robustness properties, but may reasonably be challenged in overall quality with respect to stabilization by alternative simple rules that also condition on lagged interest rates, even though these rules employ parameters that are set without accounting for model uncertainty.

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File URL: http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/econ/archive/wp2004-19.pdf
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Paper provided by Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems in its series Working papers with number 19.

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Date of creation: 2004
Handle: RePEc:att:wimass:200419
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UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON, SOCIAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH INSTITUTE(S.S.R.I.), MADISON WISCONSIN 53706 U.S.A.

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  1. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
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  38. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:1:p:167-85 is not listed on IDEAS
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