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Monetary Policy with a Wider Information Set: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

  • Fabio Milani

    (Princeton University)

Monetary policy has been usually analyzed in the context of small macroeconomic models where central banks are allowed to exploit a limited amount of information. Under these frameworks, researchers typically derive the optimality of aggressive monetary rules, contrasting with the observed policy conservatism and interest rate smoothing. This paper allows the central bank to exploit a wider information set, while taking into account the associated model uncertainty, by employing Bayesian Model Averaging with Markov Chain Model Composition (MC³). In this enriched environment, we derive the optimality of smoother and more cautious policy rates, together with clear gains in macroeconomic efficiency.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/mac/papers/0401/0401004.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0401004.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 18 Jan 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0401004
Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on Win2000; pages: 43; figures: included
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Svensson, Lars & Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," Seminar Papers 688, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Alexei Onatski & James H. Stock, 2000. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty in a Small Model of the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 7490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert Tetlow, 2000. "The Fed Is Not As Ignorant As You Think," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 202, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Brian Sack & Volker Wieland, 1999. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Fabio Milani, 2003. "Adaptive Learning, Model Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Inertia in a Large Information Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 280, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Onatski, Alexei & Williams, Noah, 2002. "Modeling model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0169, European Central Bank.
  9. Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Smoothing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 861-886, October.
  10. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "The conquest of U.S. inflation: learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0478, European Central Bank.
  11. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 1999. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 9903003, EconWPA, revised 06 Oct 2001.
  12. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
  13. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 791-831, October.
  14. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  15. Rudebusch, G.D. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Papers 637, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  16. Favero Carlo A. & Milani Fabio, 2005. "Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33, February.
  17. Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N. & West,K.D., 2003. "Policy evaluation in uncertain economic environments," Working papers 15, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  18. Sack, Brian, 2000. "Does the fed act gradually? A VAR analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 229-256, August.
  19. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April.
  20. Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
  21. Christopher A. Sims, 2001. "Pitfalls of a Minimax Approach to Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 51-54, May.
  22. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:1:p:85-110 is not listed on IDEAS
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