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Monetary Policy With A Wider Information Set: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

  • Fabio Milani

Monetary policy has been usually analyzed in the context of small macroeconomic models where central banks are allowed to exploit a limited amount of information. Under these frameworks, researchers typically derive the optimality of aggressive monetary rules, contrasting with the observed policy conservatism and interest rate smoothing. This paper allows the central bank to exploit a wider information set, while taking into account the associated model uncertainty, by employing Bayesian Model Averaging with Markov Chain Model Composition (MC³). In this enriched environment, we derive the optimality of smoother and more cautious policy rates, together with clear gains in macroeconomic efficiency.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2008.00446.x
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Article provided by Scottish Economic Society in its journal Scottish Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 1-30

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Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:55:y:2008:i:1:p:1-30
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  1. Svensson, Lars & Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," Seminar Papers 688, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
  4. Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 2002. "Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228.
  6. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," NBER Working Papers 10025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Favero, Carlo A. & Milani, Fabio, 2005. "Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "The conquest of U.S. inflation: learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0478, European Central Bank.
  9. Onatski, Alexei & Stock, James H., 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty In A Small Model Of The U.S. Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 85-110, February.
  10. Rudebusch, G.D. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Papers 637, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  11. Fabio Milani, 2003. "Adaptive Learning, Model Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Inertia in a Large Information Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 280, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Rudebusch, Glenn & Svensson, Lars, 1999. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," Seminar Papers 672, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  13. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
  14. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  15. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001. "Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Smoothing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 861-886.
  17. Sack, Brian, 2000. "Does the fed act gradually? A VAR analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 229-256, August.
  18. Christopher A. Sims, 2001. "Pitfalls of a Minimax Approach to Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 51-54, May.
  19. Onatski, Alexei & Williams, Noah, 2002. "Modeling model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0169, European Central Bank.
  20. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:1:p:85-110 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
  22. Robert Tetlow, 2000. "The Fed Is Not As Ignorant As You Think," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 202, Society for Computational Economics.
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