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Policy Predictions if the Model Does Not Fit

  • Marco Del Negro

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta,)

  • Frank Schorfheide

    (University of Pennsylvania,)

This paper uses a novel method for conducting policy analysis with potentially misspecified DSGE models and applies it to a simple New Keynesian DSGE model. We illustrate the sensitivity of the results to assumptions on the policy invariance of model misspecifications. (JEL: C32, E52) Copyright (c) 2005 The European Economic Association.

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Journal of the European Economic Association.

Volume (Year): 3 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (04/05)
Pages: 434-443

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:jeurec:v:3:y:2005:i:2-3:p:434-443
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  1. Alexei Onatski & Noah Williams, 2010. "Empirical and policy performance of a forward-looking monetary model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 145-176.
  2. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:1:p:85-110 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Alexei Onatski & James H. Stock, 1999. "Robust monetary policy under model uncertainty in a small model of the U.S. economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "Monetary policy analysis with potentially misspecified models," Working Papers 06-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05.
  6. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide & Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004. "On the fit and forecasting performance of New Keynesian models," Working Paper 2004-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994. "Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
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