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Model uncertainty and policy evaluation : some theory and empirics

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2008. "Learning, expectations formation, and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 80-96, October.
  2. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2015. "Learning and Model Validation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 45-82.
  3. Dennis, Richard, 2010. "How robustness can lower the cost of discretion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 653-667, September.
  4. Ricardo Mestre & Peter McAdam, 2011. "Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 303-324, April.
  5. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage combination from a real-time dataset," CSEF Working Papers 274, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  6. Richard Dennis & Kai Leitemo & Ulf Soderstrom, 2006. "Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Preference for Robustness," Working Papers 316, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  7. Emmanuel De Veirman, 2009. "What Makes the Output-Inflation Trade-Off Change? The Absence of Accelerating Deflation in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1117-1140, September.
  8. Cosmin Ilut, 2012. "Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 33-65, July.
  9. Sbordone, Argia M., 2007. "Inflation persistence: Alternative interpretations and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1311-1339, July.
  10. GEORGE W. EVANS & BRUCE McGOUGH, 2007. "Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1335-1356, September.
  11. Marc P. Giannoni, 2007. "Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward-looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 179-213.
  12. Rondina, Francesca, 2012. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the US postwar policy response to oil prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1009-1041.
  13. Francesca Rondina, 2010. "Policy Evaluation and Uncertainty About the Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Activity," Working Papers 522, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  14. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2009. "Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 4, pages 115-144 Central Bank of Chile.
  15. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2006:i:36:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique & Ruiz, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2015. "Model uncertainty and the forecast accuracy of ARMA models: A survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  17. Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Modelling inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 4104, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 01 Jun 2004.
  18. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis with Potentially Misspecified Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1415-1450, September.
  19. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 2013. "Complexity and Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 167-204, January.
  20. Roger Koppl & William Luther, 2012. "Hayek, Keynes, and modern macroeconomics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 223-241, September.
  21. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph, 2012. "Probability models and robust policy rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 246-262.
  22. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2007. "Recursive robust estimation and control without commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-27, September.
  23. Ampaabeng, Samuel K. & Tan, Chih Ming, 2013. "The long-term cognitive consequences of early childhood malnutrition: The case of famine in Ghana," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1013-1027.
  24. Vasyl Golosnoy & Yarema Okhrin, 2015. "Using information quality for volatility model combinations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 1055-1073, June.
  25. Durlauf, Steven N. & Navarro, Salvador & Rivers, David A., 2016. "Model uncertainty and the effect of shall-issue right-to-carry laws on crime," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 32-67.
  26. Marcelo Sánchez, 2013. "On the Limits of Transparency: The Role of Imperfect Central Bank Knowledge," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 245-271, June.
  27. Taylor, John B. & Williams, John C., 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 15, pages 829-859 Elsevier.
  28. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
  29. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2009. "The effects of monetary policy on unemployment dynamics under model uncertainty: evidence from the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 1089, European Central Bank.
  30. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Nason, James M. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2007. "Simple versus optimal rules as guides to policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1372-1396, July.
  31. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2008. "Robust monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3218-3252, October.
  32. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N., 2005. "Local robustness analysis: Theory and application," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2067-2092, November.
  33. Deller, Steven C., 2010. "Spatial Variations in the Role of Microenterprises in Economic Growth," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 40(1), pages 71-97.
  34. Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2010. "Model averaging in economics," MPRA Paper 26047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Cohen-Cole, Ethan B. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2012. "Nonlinearities in growth: From evidence to policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 42-58.
  36. Cogley, Timothy & De Paoli, Bianca & Matthes, Christian & Nikolov, Kalin & Yates, Tony, 2011. "A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2186-2212.
  37. Travis J. Berge, 2015. "Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 455-471, September.
  38. Lindsay N. Amiel & Steven Deller & Judith I. Stallman, 2012. "Economic Growth and Tax and Expenditure Limitations," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 42(3), pages 185-206, Winter.
  39. James M. Nason, 2006. "Instability in U.S. inflation: 1967-2005," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 2, pages 39-59.
  40. Steven Deller & Judith I. Stallmann & Lindsay Amiel, 2012. "The Impact of State and Local Tax and Expenditure Limitations on State Economic Growth," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 56-84, March.
  41. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "Model Uncertainty and the Direction of Fit of the Postwar U.S. Phillips Curve(s)," Working Papers 1702E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  42. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2010. "Evaluating the effect of monetary policy on unemployment with alternative inflation forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 237-253, January.
  43. Vanina Forget, 2012. "Doing well and doing good: a multi-dimensional puzzle," Working Papers hal-00672037, HAL.
  44. Federico Ravenna, 2014. "How Central Banks Learn the True Model of the Economy," Cahiers de recherche 1409, CIRPEE.
  45. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2008. "Inflation models, optimal monetary policy and uncertain unemployment dynamics: Evidence from the US and the euro area," Discussion Papers 8_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  46. Alan H. Sanstad, 2015. "Abating Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Electric Power Generation: Model Uncertainty and Regulatory Epistemology," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(S2), pages 423-445.
  47. Brock, William A. & Haslag, Joseph H., 2016. "A tale of two correlations: Evidence and theory regarding the phase shift between the price level and output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 40-57.
  48. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Financial frictions and robust monetary policy in the models of New Keynesian framework," BCAM Working Papers 1701, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
  49. Meixing DAI & Eleftherios SPYROMITROS, 2008. "Monetary policy, asset prices and model uncertainty," Working Papers of BETA 2008-15, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  50. In-Koo Cho & Ken Kasa, 2012. "Model Validation and Learning," Discussion Papers dp12-07, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  51. Man-Keung Tang & Xiangrong Yu, 2011. "Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 11/209, International Monetary Fund.
  52. repec:eee:quaeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Iverson, Terrence, 2012. "Communicating Trade-offs amid Controversial Science: Decision Support for Climate Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 74-90.
  54. Qin, Li & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2013. "Robust monetary policy under model uncertainty and inflation persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 721-728.
  55. Diego Nocetti & William T. Smith, 2006. "Why Do Pooled Forecasts Do Better Than Individual Forecasts Ex Post?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(36), pages 1-7.
  56. Katrin Woelfel & Christoph Weber, 2014. "Searching for the FED's Reaction Function," Working Papers 154, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
  57. Kerkhof, Jeroen & Melenberg, Bertrand & Schumacher, Hans, 2010. "Model risk and capital reserves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 267-279, January.
  58. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2011. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  59. Spanjers, Willy, 2008. "Central banks and ambiguity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 85-102.
  60. Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N., 2004. "Macroeconomics and model uncertainty," Working papers 20, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  61. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 6, pages 1-69.
  62. Anderson, Evan W. & Brock, William & Sanstad, Alan H., 2016. "Robust Consumption and Energy Decisions," 2017 Allied Social Science Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2017, Chicago, Illinois 250117, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  63. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pierse, Richard & Pearlman, Joseph G., 2008. "Risk Management in Action. Robust monetary policy rules under structured uncertainty," Working Paper Series 870, European Central Bank.
  64. Gilbert Bougi & Helmi Hamdi, 2007. "La crédibilité de la banque centrale face aux défis de la monnaie électronique," CAE Working Papers 56, Aix-Marseille Université, CERGAM.
  65. Ali Alichi & Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Ondra Kamenik & Michel Juillard & Douglas Laxton & Jarkko Turunen & Hou Wang, 2015. "Avoiding Dark Corners; A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States," IMF Working Papers 15/134, International Monetary Fund.
  66. Marc Giannoni, 2006. "Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-Looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 11942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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