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Probability models and robust policy rules

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  • Levine, Paul
  • McAdam, Peter
  • Pearlman, Joseph

Abstract

We consider Sims's (2008) argument that robust policy making requires that policy models be treated as “probability models”. In a welfare-based setting, we estimate by Bayesian methods a number of variants of a New Keynesian macroeconomic model and use both the model odds and posterior densities to design robust interest rate rules consisting of an inflation-forecast-based rule and a wage-targeting one. Each are shown to have distinct robustness qualities and distinct implications for the probability-models approach. To ensure feasible policy, we further impose that rules are stable, determinate and lower-bound compatible. Our results have important implications for the design, evaluation and analysis of the probability models approach to robust monetary policy making.

Suggested Citation

  • Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph, 2012. "Probability models and robust policy rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 246-262.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:56:y:2012:i:2:p:246-262
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2011.08.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Kriwoluzky & Christian A. Stoltenberg, 2016. "Nested Models and Model Uncertainty," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 118(2), pages 324-353, April.
    2. Deak, S. & Levine, P. & Mirza, A. & Pearlman, J., 2019. "Designing Robust Monetary Policy Using Prediction Pools," Working Papers 19/11, Department of Economics, City University London.
    3. JoÃo Ricardo Faria & Peter Mcadam, 2013. "Anticipation of Future Consumption: A Monetary Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 423-447, March.
    4. Paul Levine, 2012. "Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 70-88, April.
    5. Cristiano Cantore & Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2013. "The science and art of DSGE modelling: II – model comparisons, model validation, policy analysis and general discussion," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 19, pages 441-463, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Georgios Papadopoulos & Dionysios Chionis & Nikolaos P. Rachaniotis, 2018. "Macro-financial linkages during tranquil and crisis periods: evidence from stressed economies," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(2), pages 142-166, May.
    7. Cristiano Cantore & Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2013. "The science and art of DSGE modelling: I – construction and Bayesian estimation," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 18, pages 411-440, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine & Giovanni Melina, 2014. "A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(3), pages 669-701, July.
    9. Górajski Mariusz & Kuchta Zbigniew, 2018. "Measuring Uncertainty of Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in DSGE models," Lodz Economics Working Papers 6/2018, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    10. Szabolcs Deak & Paul Levine & Afrasiab Mirza & Joseph Pearlman, 2020. "Is Price Level Targeting a Robust Monetary Rule?," Discussion Papers 20-27, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Probability models; Interest-rate rules; Robustness; Bayes theorem; Structured uncertainty; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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