IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecj/econjl/v119y2009i535pf136-f182.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fear, Unemployment and Migration

Author

Listed:
  • DavidG. Blanchflower
  • Chris Shadforth

Abstract

We examine the impact on the UK economy of the flow of workers from ten East European countries after their accession to the European Union. We find evidence that those most susceptible to competition from these workers have seen weaker wage inflation. We document that the presence of these foreign workers has increased the fear of unemployment and helped to contain wage pressure. We argue that this inflow of workers has increased supply by more than it has raised demand and, thus, had the effect of reducing both inflationary pressures and the natural rate of unemployment. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • DavidG. Blanchflower & Chris Shadforth, 2009. "Fear, Unemployment and Migration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages 136-182, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:119:y:2009:i:535:p:f136-f182
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1999. "The High-Pressure U.S. Labor Market of the 1990s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 1-88.
    2. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2004. "Well-being over time in Britain and the USA," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1359-1386, July.
    3. Manacorda, Marco & Manning, Alan & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 2006. "The impact of immigration on the structure of male wages: theory and evidence from Britain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19797, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Ethan Lewis, 2005. "Immigration, Skill Mix, and the Choice of Technique," Working Papers 05-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Timothy J. Hatton & Massimiliano Tani, 2005. "Immigration and Inter-Regional Mobility in the UK, 1982-2000," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages 342-358, November.
    6. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0702, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    7. Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2005. "Rethinking the Gains from Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the U.S," NBER Working Papers 11672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2007. "Circular Migration: Counts of Exits and Years away from the Host Country," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 718, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Drinkwater, Stephen & Eade, John & Garapich, Michal, 2006. "Poles Apart? EU Enlargement and the Labour Market Outcomes of Immigrants in the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 2410, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Blanchflower, David G, 1991. "Fear, Unemployment and Pay Flexibility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 483-496, May.
    11. Berndt, Ernst R & Christensen, Laurits R, 1974. "Testing for the Existence of a Consistent Aggregate Index of Labor Inputs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 391-404, June.
    12. Blanchflower, David G., 2000. "Self-employment in OECD countries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 471-505, September.
    13. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini, 2011. "Immigration: The European Experience," Development Working Papers 326, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 27 Dec 2011.
    14. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, June.
    15. David Blanchflower & Jumana Saleheen & Chris Shadforth, 2007. "The impact of the recent migration from Eastern Europe on the UK economy," Discussion Papers 17, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    16. Blanchflower, David G. & Shadforth, Chris, 2007. "Entrepreneurship in the UK," Foundations and Trends(R) in Entrepreneurship, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 257-364, July.
    17. Blanchflower, David G., 2001. "Unemployment, Well-Being, and Wage Curves in Eastern and Central Europe," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 364-402, December.
    18. Dustmann, Christian, 2003. "Return migration, wage differentials, and the optimal migration duration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 353-369, April.
    19. DaVanzo, Julie, 1983. "Repeat Migration in the United States: Who Moves Back and Who Moves On?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 552-559, November.
    20. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1998. "What Makes an Entrepreneur?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 26-60, January.
    21. Metcalf, David, 2007. "Why has the British national minimum wage had little or no impact on employment?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19742, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    22. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2005. "A Meta‐Analytic Assessment of the Effect of Immigration on Wages," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 451-477, July.
    23. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2005. "Happiness and the Human Development Index: The Paradox of Australia," NBER Working Papers 11416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. David Blanchflower & A Oswald, 1993. "Entrepreneurship," CEP Discussion Papers dp0134, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    25. N/A, 2006. "The UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 196(1), pages 40-59, April.
    26. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew & Stutzer, Alois, 2001. "Latent entrepreneurship across nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 680-691, May.
    27. David Metcalf, 2007. "Why Has the British National Minimum Wage Had Little or No Impact on Employment?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0781, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    28. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Does Immigration Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 14, pages 431-484, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    29. Barry Chiswick & Timothy J. Hatton, 2003. "International Migration and the Integration of Labor Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 65-120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri, 2005. "Immigrants in the British labour market," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 423-470, December.
    31. Paul Frijters & Michael A. Shields & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2005. "Job Search Methods and Their Success: A Comparison of Immigrants and Natives in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages 359-376, November.
    32. Dean Yang, 2006. "Why Do Migrants Return to Poor Countries? Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Responses to Exchange Rate Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 715-735, November.
    33. Jean, Sébastien & Jiménez, Miguel, 2011. "The unemployment impact of immigration in OECD countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 241-256, June.
    34. Griliches, Zvi, 1969. "Capital-Skill Complementarity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(4), pages 465-468, November.
    35. David G. Blanchflower, 2004. "Self-Employment: More may not be better," NBER Working Papers 10286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. David G. Blanchflower & Richard B. Freeman, 1997. "The Attitudinal Legacy of Communist Labor Relations," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 50(3), pages 438-459, April.
    37. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    38. Siegfried, Nikolaus & Schiopu, Ioana, 2006. "Determinants of workers' remittances: evidence from the European Neighbouring Region," Working Paper Series 688, European Central Bank.
    39. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    40. Dustmann, Christian, 1994. "Return Intentions of Migrants: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. repec:bla:ausecr:v:38:y:2005:i:3:p:307-318 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2004. "Selection or Network Effects? Migration Flows into 27 OECD Countries, 1990-2000," IZA Discussion Papers 1104, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    43. Lawrence Katz & Alan Krueger, 1999. "The High-pressure U.S. Labor Market of the 1990s," Working Papers 795, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    44. Dean Yang, 2006. "Why Do Migrants Return to Poor Countries? Evidence From Philippine Migrants%u2019 Responses to Exchange Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages 324-341, November.
    46. Welch, F, 1970. "Education in Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-59, Jan.-Feb..
    47. repec:fth:prinin:416 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Peri, Giovanni, 2005. "Rethinking the Gains from Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 5226, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    49. Michael D. Bordo & Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Globalization in Historical Perspective," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord03-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blanchflower, David G. & Lawton, Helen, 2008. "The Impact of the Recent Expansion of the EU on the UK Labour Market," IZA Discussion Papers 3695, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Luigi Capoani & Cristoforo Imbesi & Francesca Rinaldi & Claudio Annibali, 2024. "Return migration, self-selection and labour market outcomes," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2024(2), pages 191-228.
    3. Lemos, Sara, 2017. "Mind the gap: A detailed picture of the immigrant-native earnings gap in the UK using longitudinal data between 1978 and 2006," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 57-75.
    4. Lemos, Sara & Portes, Jonathan, 2008. "New Labour? The Impact of Migration from Central and Eastern European Countries on the UK Labour Market," IZA Discussion Papers 3756, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Aguilar, Alexandra Cortés & García Muñoz, Teresa M. & Moro-Egido, Ana I., 2013. "Heterogeneous self-employment and satisfaction in Latin America," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 44-61.
    6. ., 2012. "Migration impact assessment: a state of the art," Chapters, in: Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot & Mediha Sahin (ed.), Migration Impact Assessment, chapter 1, pages 3-62, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Wahba, Jackline, 2014. "Do high-income or low-income immigrants leave faster?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 54-68.
    8. Peter Huber & Gabriele Tondl, 2012. "Migration and regional convergence in the European Union," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(4), pages 439-460, November.
    9. Dustmann, Christian & Glitz, Albrecht, 2011. "Migration and Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 327-439, Elsevier.
    10. David Blanchflower, 2009. "Minority self-employment in the United States and the impact of affirmative action programs," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 361-396, June.
    11. Peter Huber & Klaus Nowotny, 2009. "Return Intentions among Potential Migrants and Commuters: The Role of Human Capital, Deprivation and Networks," WIFO Working Papers 342, WIFO.
    12. Andrea Grabmayer & Andrea Hartmann & Maria Thalhammer, 2009. "Labour Mobility within the EU in the Context of Enlargement and the Functioning of the Transitional Arrangements," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 35641, March.
    13. Nijkamp, P. & Poot, H.J., 2012. "Migration impact assessment: A state of the art," Serie Research Memoranda 0009, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    14. Blanchflower, David G. & Saleheen, Jumana & Shadforth, Chris, 2007. "The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the UK Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 2615, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Dustmann, Christian & Glitz, Albrecht & Vogel, Thorsten, 2010. "Employment, wages, and the economic cycle: Differences between immigrants and natives," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 1-17, January.
    16. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 98-136, March.
    17. Lelkes, Orsolya, 2006. "Tasting freedom: Happiness, religion and economic transition," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 173-194, February.
    18. Konstantinos Pouliakas & Deborah Roberts & Eudokia Balamou & Dimitris Psaltopoulos, 2014. "Modelling the Effects of Immigration on Regional Economic Performance and Wage Distribution: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of Three European Union Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 318-338, February.
    19. Biavaschi, Costanza, 2016. "Recovering the counterfactual wage distribution with selective return migration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 59-80.
    20. Augustin de Coulon & Dragos Radu & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2016. "Pane e Cioccolata: The Impact of Native Attitudes on Return Migration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 253-281, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:119:y:2009:i:535:p:f136-f182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/resssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.