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Fear, Unemployment and Migration

  • DavidG. Blanchflower
  • Chris Shadforth

We examine the impact on the UK economy of the flow of workers from ten East European countries after their accession to the European Union. We find evidence that those most susceptible to competition from these workers have seen weaker wage inflation. We document that the presence of these foreign workers has increased the fear of unemployment and helped to contain wage pressure. We argue that this inflow of workers has increased supply by more than it has raised demand and, thus, had the effect of reducing both inflationary pressures and the natural rate of unemployment. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2009.

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 119 (2009)
Issue (Month): 535 (02)
Pages: F136-F182

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:119:y:2009:i:535:p:f136-f182
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  1. Blanchflower, David G., 2000. "Self-employment in OECD countries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 471-505, September.
  2. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2005. "Happiness and the Human Development Index: The Paradox of Australia," IZA Discussion Papers 1601, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. David Metcalf, 2007. "Why Has the British National Minimum Wage Had Little or No Impact on Employment?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0781, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. Dustmann, Christian, 1994. "Return Intentions of Migrants: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. Welch, F, 1970. "Education in Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-59, Jan.-Feb..
  8. David G. Blanchflower, 2004. "Self-Employment: More may not be better," NBER Working Papers 10286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2007. "Circular Migration: Counts of Exits and Years away from the Host Country," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 718, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Blanchflower, D.G. & Oswald, A., 1991. "What Makes an Entrepreneur?," Economics Series Working Papers 99125, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  11. Dean Yang, 2006. "Why Do Migrants Return to Poor Countries? Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Responses to Exchange Rate Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 715-735, November.
  12. Ethan Lewis, 2005. "Immigration, Skill Mix, and the Choice of Technique," Working Papers 05-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  13. Griliches, Zvi, 1969. "Capital-Skill Complementarity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(4), pages 465-68, November.
  14. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Dustmann, Christian, 2001. "Return Migration, Wage Differentials, and the Optimal Migration Duration," IZA Discussion Papers 264, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. Chiswick, Barry R. & Hatton, Timothy J., 2002. "International Migration and the Integration of Labor Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 559, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Blanchflower, David G., 2001. "Unemployment, Well-Being, and Wage Curves in Eastern and Central Europe," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 364-402, December.
  18. Marco Manacorda & Alan Manning & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2006. "The Impact of Immigration on the Structure of Male Wages: Theory and Evidence from Britain," CEP Discussion Papers dp0754, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  19. Michael D. Bordo & Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Globalization in Historical Perspective," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord03-1, 08.
  20. DaVanzo, Julie, 1983. "Repeat Migration in the United States: Who Moves Back and Who Moves On?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 552-59, November.
  21. Blanchflower, D., 1989. "Fear, Unemployment And Pay Flexibility," Papers 344, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
  22. Schiopu, Ioana & Siegfried, Nikolaus, 2006. "Determinants of workers’ remittances: evidence from the European Neighbouring Region," Working Paper Series 0688, European Central Bank.
  23. David G. Blanchflower & Richard B. Freeman, 1997. "The Attitudinal Legacy of Communist Labor Relations," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 50(3), pages 438-459, April.
  24. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2001. "Well-Being Over Time in Britain and the USA," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 616, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  25. Sébastien Jean & Miguel Jimenez, 2007. "The Unemployment Impact of Immigration in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 563, OECD Publishing.
  26. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2004. "A Meta-Analytic Assessment of the Effect of Immigration on Wages," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-47, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.
  27. Stephen Drinkwater & John Eade & Michal Garapich, 2006. "Poles Apart? EU Enlargement and the Labour Market Outcomes of immigrants in the UK," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1706, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  28. Blanchflower, David G. & Shadforth, Chris, 2007. "Entrepreneurship in the UK," Foundations and Trends(R) in Entrepreneurship, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 257-364, July.
  29. Paul Frijters & Michael A. Shields & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2005. "Job Search Methods and Their Success: A Comparison of Immigrants and Natives in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages F359-F376, November.
  30. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew & Stutzer, Alois, 2001. "Latent entrepreneurship across nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 680-691, May.
  31. Blanchflower, David G. & Saleheen, Jumana & Shadforth, Chris, 2007. "The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the UK Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 2615, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  32. David Blanchflower & A Oswald, 1993. "Entrepreneurship," CEP Discussion Papers dp0134, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  33. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, 06.
  34. N/A, 2006. "The UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 196(1), pages 40-59, April.
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