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Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union

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  • Zaiceva, Anzelika

    () (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia)

Abstract

This paper briefly reviews the existing literature on potential migration into the enlarged European Union, reconciles the results with recent evidence and presents an additional migration scenario. The estimation procedure accounts for both sending and receiving countries' unobserved heterogeneity, and in the simulations a counterfactual scenario is calculated, in which all EU member states introduce free movement of workers simultaneously in 2011. The results suggest that the overall level of migration from the East will amount to around 1 per cent of the EU15 population within a decade after enlargement, and that the legal introduction of free movement of workers will not increase immigration significantly. These findings are compared both with the previous literature and emerging evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2519
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Burda, Michael C, 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    3. Kraus, Margit & Schwager, Robert, 2000. "EU enlargement and immigration," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-09, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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    6. Thomas Straubhaar, 2001. "East-West migration: Will it be a problem?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 36(4), pages 167-170, July.
    7. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October.
    8. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2, June.
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    12. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Report No. 3: Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 180-194.
    2. Khrystyna FOGEL, 2015. "The multistage nature of labour migration from Eastern and Central Europe (experience of Ukraine, Poland, United Kingdom and Germany during the 2002-2011 period)," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6, pages 55-81, December.
    3. David G. Blanchflower, 2009. "International Evidence on Well-Being," NBER Chapters,in: Measuring the Subjective Well-Being of Nations: National Accounts of Time Use and Well-Being, pages 155-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Vladimir Borgy & Xavier Chojnicki & Gilles Le Garrec & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2010. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: a General Equilibrium Analysis," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 97-98, pages 13-39.
    5. Michael Fertig, 2013. "Mobility in an enlarging European Union: Projections of potential flows from EU's eastern neighbors and Croatia," Discussion Papers 18, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
    6. Kahanec, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2008. "Migration in an Enlarged EU: A Challenging Solution?," IZA Discussion Papers 3913, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Gabriel Felbermayr & Wido Geis & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Restrictive Immigration Policy in Germany: Pains and Gains Foregone?," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 12, pages 395-419 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. repec:wfo:wstudy:35641 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(43), pages 3-77.
    10. Gligorov, Vladimir, 2009. "Mobility and Transition in Integrating Europe," MPRA Paper 19198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. DavidG. Blanchflower & Chris Shadforth, 2009. "Fear, Unemployment and Migration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages 136-182, February.
    12. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Konjunktur zieht an – Haushaltsüberschüsse sinnvoll nutzen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(20), pages 03-60, October.
    13. Michael Fertig & Martin Kahanec, 2015. "Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, December.
    14. Anzelika Zaiceva & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Scale, diversity, and determinants of labour migration in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 428-452, Autumn.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration extrapolations; EU enlargement; panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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