Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union
This paper briefly reviews the existing literature on potential migration into the enlarged European Union, reconciles the results with recent evidence and presents an additional migration scenario. The estimation procedure accounts for both sending and receiving countries' unobserved heterogeneity, and in the simulations a counterfactual scenario is calculated, in which all EU member states introduce free movement of workers simultaneously in 2011. The results suggest that the overall level of migration from the East will amount to around 1 per cent of the EU15 population within a decade after enlargement, and that the legal introduction of free movement of workers will not increase immigration significantly. These findings are compared both with the previous literature and emerging evidence.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org
|Order Information:|| Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Burda, Michael C, 1995.
"Migration and the Option Value of Waiting,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- M. C. Burda, 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,58, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Burda,M.C., 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," Papers 597, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
- Kraus, Margit & Schwager, Robert, 2000. "EU enlargement and immigration," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-09, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2004. "Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, 03.
- Thomas Straubhaar, 2001. "East-West migration: Will it be a problem?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 36(4), pages 167-170, July.
- Thomas Straubhaar, 2001. "East-West migration: Will it be a problem?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 36(1), pages 1-2, January.
- Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October.
- Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
- Stark, Oded, 1984. "Migration decision making : De Jong, Gordon F. and Robert W. Gardner, eds., (Pergamon, New York, 1981)," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 251-259.
- Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. " Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 159-198, June.
- Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Report No. 3: Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2519. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.