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Mobility in an Enlarging European Union: Projections of Potential Flows from EU's Eastern Neighbors and Croatia

  • Fertig, Michael

    ()

    (ISG, Cologne)

  • Kahanec, Martin

    ()

    (Central European University)

This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts using an adaption of the model of Hatton (1995) to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 7634.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in IZA Journal of Migration, 4:6, 2015, as "Projections of Potential Flows to the Enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern Neighbors"
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7634
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  1. Martin Kahanec & Michael Shields, 2013. "The working hours of immigrants in Germany: temporary versus permanent," IZA Journal of Migration, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, December.
  2. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. De Giorgi, Giacomo & Pellizzari, Michele, 2009. "Welfare migration in Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 353-363, August.
  4. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2002. "Mobility within Europe – What do we (still not) know?," IZA Discussion Papers 447, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Corrado Giulietti & Martin Guzi & Martin Kahanec & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2013. "Unemployment benefits and immigration: evidence from the EU," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 24-38, January.
  6. Alan Barrett & Martin Kahanec & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2013. "Pitfalls of immigrant inclusion into the European welfare state," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 97-98, January.
  7. Amelie Constant & Martin Kahanec & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Attitudes Towards Immigrants, Other Integration Barriers, and Their Veracity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 812, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Timothy Hatton, 2005. "Explaining trends in UK immigration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 719-740, November.
  9. Hazans, Mihails & Philips, Kaia, 2011. "The Post-Enlargement Migration Experience in the Baltic Labor Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 5878, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2008. "Selection and network effects--Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1160-1186, October.
  11. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini, 2011. "Immigration: The European Experience," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1122, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  12. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
  13. repec:nsr:niesrd:379 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Hatton, Timothy J, 1995. "A Model of U.K. Emigration, 1870-1913," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 407-15, August.
  15. Paweł Kaczmarczyk & Marek Okólski, 2008. "Demographic and labour-market impacts of migration on Poland," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 600-625, Autumn.
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