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Mobility in an Enlarging European Union: Projections of Potential Flows from EU's Eastern Neighbors and Croatia

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  • Fertig, Michael

    () (ISG, Cologne)

  • Kahanec, Martin

    () (Central European University)

Abstract

This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts using an adaption of the model of Hatton (1995) to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population.

Suggested Citation

  • Fertig, Michael & Kahanec, Martin, 2013. "Mobility in an Enlarging European Union: Projections of Potential Flows from EU's Eastern Neighbors and Croatia," IZA Discussion Papers 7634, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7634
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amelie F. Constant & Martin Kahanec & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Attitudes towards immigrants, other integration barriers, and their veracity," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(1/2), pages 5-14, March.
    2. Dr Tatiana Fic & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Lucy Stokes & Dawn Holland, 2011. "Labour mobility within the EU," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 379, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    3. Corrado Giulietti & Martin Guzi & Martin Kahanec & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2013. "Unemployment benefits and immigration: evidence from the EU," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 24-38, March.
    4. Timothy Hatton, 2005. "Explaining trends in UK immigration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(4), pages 719-740, November.
    5. repec:nsr:niesrd:379 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:cup:apsrev:v:89:y:1995:i:03:p:634-647_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
    8. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2008. "Selection and network effects--Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1160-1186, October.
    10. Hazans, Mihails & Philips, Kaia, 2011. "The Post-Enlargement Migration Experience in the Baltic Labor Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 5878, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. Dustmann, Christian & Frattini, Tommaso, 2011. "Immigration: The European Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 6261, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    12. Martin Kahanec & Michael Shields, 2013. "The working hours of immigrants in Germany: temporary versus permanent," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Martin Kahanec & Anna Myung-Hee Kim & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2013. "Pitfalls of immigrant inclusion into the European welfare state," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 39-55, January.
    14. De Giorgi, Giacomo & Pellizzari, Michele, 2009. "Welfare migration in Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 353-363, August.
    15. Kahanec, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Kureková, Lucia Mýtna & Biavaschi, Costanza, 2013. "Report No. 56: Labour Migration from EaP Countries to the EU – Assessment of Costs and Benefits and Proposals for Better Labour Market Matching," IZA Research Reports 56, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    16. Paweł Kaczmarczyk & Marek Okólski, 2008. "Demographic and labour-market impacts of migration on Poland," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 600-625, Autumn.
    17. Hatton, Timothy J, 1995. "A Model of U.K. Emigration, 1870-1913," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 407-415, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU enlargement; Eastern Partnership; European Union; free movement of workers; migration; migration potential; out-of-sample forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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