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A Model of UK Emigration, 1870-1913

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  • Hatton, Timothy J.

Abstract

This paper develops a simple time-series model of emigration and applies it to data for emigration from the UK between 1870 and 1913. The model is derived from a microeconomic analysis of the migration decision and provides a specific functional form and dynamic structure. It encompasses many of the features of models used in earlier research in which the specifications have been essentially ad hoc. The results support the model strongly in most respects. Both wage rates and employment rates in the sending and the receiving countries influenced fluctuations in emigration. The short-run fluctuations were driven largely by variations in employment rates while the long-run level of emigration was determined largely by the relative wage.

Suggested Citation

  • Hatton, Timothy J., 1993. "A Model of UK Emigration, 1870-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 771, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:771
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    Keywords

    Emigration; UK;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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