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Mobility in an enlarging European Union: Projections of potential flows from EU's eastern neighbors and Croatia

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  • Michael Fertig
  • Martin Kahanec

Abstract

This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts using an adaption of the model of Hatton (1995) to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU’s 2004 enlar­gement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Fertig & Martin Kahanec, 2013. "Mobility in an enlarging European Union: Projections of potential flows from EU's eastern neighbors and Croatia," Discussion Papers 18, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
    • Handle: RePEc:cel:dpaper:18
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    1. Constant, Amelie F. & Kahanec, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Attitudes Towards Immigrants, Other Integration Barriers, and Their Veracity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 30(1/2), pages 5-14.
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    14. Martin Kahanec & Anna Myung-Hee Kim & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2013. "Pitfalls of immigrant inclusion into the European welfare state," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 39-55, January.
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    1. Ivana Drazenovic & Marina Kunovac & Dominik Pripuzic, 2018. "Dynamics and determinants of emigration: the case of Croatia and the experience of new EU member states," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 415-447.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; free movement of workers; European Union; Eastern Partnership; EU enlargement; migration potential; out-of-sample forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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