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The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential


  • Michael Fertig

    () (All correspondence to Michael Fertig, Dept. Of Economics , University of Heidelberg, Grabengasse 14, 69117 Heidelberg)


This paper analyzes the determinants of immigration flows to Germany in a time series-cross section framework. The reduced form of a well established theoretical model is estimated for a sample of 17 sending countries and a period covering 1960 to 1994. The estimates are then used to perform out-of-sample forecasts to assess the immigration potential from the Eastern European accession candidates to Germany. These scenarios predict a moderate increase in immigration to Germany, especially for the first round accession candidates.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:26:y:2001:i:4:p:707-720 Note: received: July 1999/Final version received: July 2000

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    Immigration; time series-cross section estimation; out-of-sample forecasting.;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods


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