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The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential

  • Michael Fertig

    ()

    (All correspondence to Michael Fertig, Dept. Of Economics , University of Heidelberg, Grabengasse 14, 69117 Heidelberg)

This paper analyzes the determinants of immigration flows to Germany in a time series-cross section framework. The reduced form of a well established theoretical model is estimated for a sample of 17 sending countries and a period covering 1960 to 1994. The estimates are then used to perform out-of-sample forecasts to assess the immigration potential from the Eastern European accession candidates to Germany. These scenarios predict a moderate increase in immigration to Germany, especially for the first round accession candidates.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 26 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 707-720

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:26:y:2001:i:4:p:707-720
Note: received: July 1999/Final version received: July 2000
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