The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: evidence for Germany and the UK
This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of the diversion of migration ﬂows away from Germany towards the UK in the course of the EUâs Eastern Enlargement. The EU has agreed transitional periods for the free movement of workers with the new member states from Central and Eastern Europe. The selective application of migration restrictions during the transitional periods has resulted in a reversal of the pre-enlargement allocation of migration ﬂows from the new member states across the EU. Based on a forecast of the migration potential under the conditions of free movement and of the transitional arrangements, we employ a CGE model with imperfect labour markets to analyse the macroeconomic eﬀects of this diversion process. We ﬁnd that EU Eastern enlargement has increased in the GDP per capita in the UK substantially, but that the diversion of migration ﬂows towards the UK has reduced wage gains and the decline in unemployment there. The eﬀects of the EU Eastern enlargement are less favourable for Germany, but the diversion of migration ﬂows has protected workers there against a detrimental impact on wages and unemployment.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 (0)20 7679 5888
Fax: +44 (0)20 7916 2775
Web page: http://www.cream-migration.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2002.
"The Last Word on the Wage Curve?,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
02-029/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Mar 2003.
- David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1994. "Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain 1973-1990," NBER Working Papers 4770, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991.
"Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
- Blanchflower, D. & Oswald, A., 1989.
"The Wage Curve,"
340, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
- Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
- Herbert Brücker & Philipp J. H. Schröder, 2012.
"International Migration With Heterogeneous Agents: Theory and Evidence for Germany, 1967–2009,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 152-182, 02.
- Herbert Brücker & Philipp J.H. Schroeder, 2011. "International Migration with Heterogeneous Agents: Theory and Evidence for Germany, 1967-2009," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2011027, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
- Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011.
"Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
- Jeffrey Grogger & Gordon H. Hanson, 2008. "Income Maximization and the Selection and Sorting of International Migrants," NBER Working Papers 13821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben J. Heijdra & Christian Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2001.
"Eastern enlargement of the EU: Jobs, investment and welfare in present member countries,"
Economics working papers
2001-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Ben J. Heijdra & Christian Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2002. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Jobs, Investment and Welfare in Present Member Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 718, CESifo Group Munich.
- Heijdra, Ben J. & Keuschnigg, Christian & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2002. "Eastern enlargement of the EU: jobs, investment and welfare in present member countries," CCSO Working Papers 200213, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
- Bruder, Jana, 2003. "East-West Migration in Europe, 2004 - 2015," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 40, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2, September.
- Salop, Steven C, 1979. "A Model of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 117-25, March.
- Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
- Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2002.
"The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-372, April.
- Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2001. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," IZA Discussion Papers 266, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2000. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 00-39, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Herbert Brücker & Elke J. Jahn, 2011.
"Migration and Wage‐setting: Reassessing the Labor Market Effects of Migration,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113, pages 286-317, 06.
- Herbert Brücker & Elke J. Jahn, 2009. "Migration and Wage-Setting: Reassessing the Labor Market Effects of Migration," Kiel Working Papers 1502, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
- Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Report No. 3: Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Ray Barrell & John Fitzgerald & Rebecca Riley, 2010.
"EU Enlargement and Migration: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts,"
Journal of Common Market Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 373-395, 03.
- Ray Barrell & John FitzGerald & Rebecca Riley, 2007. "EU Enlargement and Migration: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts," Papers WP203, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Rebecca Riley & Ray Barrell, 2007. "EU enlargement and migration: Assessing the macroeconomic impacts," NIESR Discussion Papers 1491, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October.
- repec:iab:iabzaf:v:39:i:1:p:35-56 is not listed on IDEAS
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen, 1986. "Unemployment in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages S121-69, Supplemen.
- Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-42, March.
- Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005.
"On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?,"
IZA Discussion Papers
1710, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
- Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Hatton, Timothy J, 1995.
"A Model of U.K. Emigration, 1870-1913,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 407-15, August.
- Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain: 1973-90," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1025-43, September.
- Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1299-1324, November.
- Blanchflower, David G. & Saleheen, Jumana & Shadforth, Chris, 2007.
"The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the UK Economy,"
IZA Discussion Papers
2615, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- David Blanchflower & Jumana Saleheen & Chris Shadforth, 2007. "The impact of the recent migration from Eastern Europe on the UK economy," Discussion Papers 17, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Djajic, Slobodan & Milbourne, Ross, 1988. "A general equilibrium model of guest-worker migration : The source-country perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 335-351, November.
- Dawkins, Christina & Srinivasan, T.N. & Whalley, John, 2001. "Calibration," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 58, pages 3653-3703 Elsevier.
- World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4367.
- Nickell, S J & Andrews, M, 1983. "Unions, Real Wages and Employment in Britain 1951-79," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(0), pages 183-206, Supplemen.
- Paul Levine, 1999. "The welfare economics of immigration control," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 23-43.
- Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2006. "Estimating and forecasting European migration : methods, problems and results," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 39(1), pages 35-56.
- repec:dgr:rugccs:200213 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nor:wpaper:2012010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Norface Migration Administrator)or (Thomas Cornelissen)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.