Macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion : a CGE simulation for Germany and the UK
"This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of the diversion of migration flows away from Germany towards the UK in the course of the EU Eastern Enlargement. The EU has agreed with the new member states from Central and Eastern Europe transitional periods for the free movement of workers. The selective application of migration restrictions during the transitional periods has resulted in a reversal of the pre-enlargement allocation of migration flows from the new member states across the EU: Germany as the main destination before enlargement attracts only modest immigration flows since 2004, while the UK and Ireland which have been only marginally affected by immigration prior to enlargement absorb about 60% of the inflows in the post-enlargement period. The macroeconomic effects of this diversion process is analysed in this paper on the basis of a CGE model which considers wage rigidities. We find that higher migration is associated with larger GDP and employment gains, but also with a smaller wage increase and a smaller decline of the unemployment rate. The diversion of migration flows away from Germany towards the UK yields thus a higher GDP and employment growth in the UK. The joint GDP of Germany and the UK declines by 0.1 per cent as a consequence of the migration restrictions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
|Date of creation:||28 Jan 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.iab.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006.
"On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?,"
Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
- Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?," IZA Discussion Papers 1710, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Salop, Steven C, 1979. "A Model of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 117-25, March.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
- Paul Levine, 1999. "The welfare economics of immigration control," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 23-43.
- Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1990.
" The Wage Curve,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(2), pages 215-35.
- Bruder, Jana, 2003. "East-West Migration in Europe, 2004 - 2015," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 40, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
- Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Timo Baas & Herbert Brücker, 2010. "Macroeconomic impact of Eastern enlargement on Germany and UK: evidence from a CGE model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 125-128, January.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991.
"Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, March.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, March.
- Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Report No. 3: Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
- Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:200803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (IAB, Geschäftsbereich Dokumentation und Bibliothek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.