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Macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion : a CGE simulation for Germany and the UK

Author

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  • Baas, Timo
  • Brücker, Herbert

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of the diversion of migration flows away from Germany towards the UK in the course of the EU Eastern Enlargement. The EU has agreed with the new member states from Central and Eastern Europe transitional periods for the free movement of workers. The selective application of migration restrictions during the transitional periods has resulted in a reversal of the pre-enlargement allocation of migration flows from the new member states across the EU: Germany as the main destination before enlargement attracts only modest immigration flows since 2004, while the UK and Ireland which have been only marginally affected by immigration prior to enlargement absorb about 60% of the inflows in the post-enlargement period. The macroeconomic effects of this diversion process is analysed in this paper on the basis of a CGE model which considers wage rigidities. We find that higher migration is associated with larger GDP and employment gains, but also with a smaller wage increase and a smaller decline of the unemployment rate. The diversion of migration flows away from Germany towards the UK yields thus a higher GDP and employment growth in the UK. The joint GDP of Germany and the UK declines by 0.1 per cent as a consequence of the migration restrictions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2008. "Macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion : a CGE simulation for Germany and the UK," IAB-Discussion Paper 200803, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:200803
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Petrović, Marko & Ozel, Bulent & Teglio, Andrea & Raberto, Marco & Cincotti, Silvano, 2020. "Should I stay or should I go? An agent-based setup for a trading and monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Großbritannien ; Irland ; Osteuropa ; Auswirkungen ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Beschäftigungsentwicklung ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Einwanderung ; EU-Osterweiterung ; Europäische Union ; internationale Migration ; internationaler Vergleich ; Lohnentwicklung ; Mobilitätsbarriere ; Ost-West-Wanderung ; Arbeitskräftemobilität ; Arbeitslosigkeit ; Arbeitsmarktentwicklung ; Wirtschaftsentwicklung ; 2004-2011;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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