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East-West Migration in Europe, 2004 - 2015

Author

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  • Bruder, Jana

Abstract

One of the questions in the context of EU-Enlargement is that of East-West Migration. How many people will leave the accession candidate countries and how will this affect the Western European countries? This paper presents a forecast of migration between the accession countries and the EU 15 from 2004 to 2015. The forecast is based on the analysis of migration experiences from the accession of Spain, Greece and Portugal. The results of a multiple regression model show that network effects play an important role. Economic factors have a significant impact only on migration into the European countries but not on emigration. The estimated coefficients are used to forecast future migration. Between 2004 and 2015 about 3.0 million people are expected to migrate temporarily into Western European countries. Permanent migration will be about 1.7 million people. Regarding distribution Germany and Austria are mostly affected by immigration. In terms of emigration quotas Poland will be by far the main source of migrants.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruder, Jana, 2003. "East-West Migration in Europe, 2004 - 2015," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 40, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:roswps:40
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/78288/1/wp040thuenen.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brosnan, Peter & Poot, Jacques, 1987. "Modelling the Determinants of Trans-Tasman Migration after World War II," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 63(183), pages 313-329, December.
    2. Straubhaar, Thomas, 2001. "Ost-West-Migrationspotential : wie groß ist es?," HWWA Discussion Papers 137, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    3. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-148, March.
    4. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
    5. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 180-194.
    2. Warin Thierry & Blakely Andrew, 2012. "Choice or Mimetism in the Decision to Migrate? A European Illustration," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-32, June.
    3. António B. Moniz, 2008. "The transformation of work? A quantitative evaluation of changes in work in Portugal," IET Working Papers Series 07/2008, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, IET/CICS.NOVA-Interdisciplinary Centre on Social Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology.
    4. Silasi, Grigore & Simina, Ovidiu Laurian, 2007. "The Bitter Taste of Strawberry Jam: Distortions on Romanian Labour Market beyond 2007," MPRA Paper 11184, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2008.
    5. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2008. "Macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion : a CGE simulation for Germany and the UK," IAB Discussion Paper 200803, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Ludo Peeters, 2011. "Controlling For Heterogeneity And Asymmetry In Cross-Section Gravity Models Of Aggregate Migration: Evidence From Mexico," ERSA conference papers ersa10p329, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU-Enlargement; Migration;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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