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Demographische Entwicklung im Freistaat Sachsen : Analyse und Strategien zum Bevölkerungsrückgang auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ; Gutachten im Auftrag der Sächsischen Staatskanzlei

  • Marcus Dittrich
  • Wolfgang Gerstenberger
  • Beate Grundig
  • Gunther Markwardt
  • Carsten Pohl
  • Heinz Schmalholz
  • Marcel Thum

Die Studie geht in zwei Schritten vor: Im ersten Teil werden die Konsequenzen des Bevölkerungswandels auf den Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen aufgezeigt. Für diesen Zweck wird ein Referenzszenario des sächsischen Arbeitsmarktes bis 2020 entwickelt. Es zeigt sich, dass sich die Arbeitsmärkte je nach Qualifikation der Arbeitskräfte sehr unterschiedlich entwickeln. Ohne Gegenmaßnahmen können hoch qualifizierte Arbeitskräfte schon in wenigen Jahren zum knappen Faktor werden, der die Wachstumschancen im Freistaat restringiert. Für die gering qualifizierten Arbeitskräfte ist durch den demographischen Wandel jedoch auch auf lange Sicht keine Entspannung zu erkennen.Der zweite Teil der Studie nimmt die Nachwuchslücke bei qualifizierten Arbeitskräften zum Ausgangspunkt und entwickelt mögliche Gegenstrategien und Anpassungsmaßnahmen für die Landespolitik. Die Studie identifiziert drei Felder, auf denen die Landesregierung aktiv werden kann und soll: Zuwanderung, Erwerbsbeteiligung und Humankapitalbildung. Die Untersuchung quantifiziert auch – so weit möglich – die einzelnen Politikmaßnahmen. Während die Neuausrichtung der Zuwanderungspolitik und die Aktivierung von Erwerbspotenzial kurz- und mittelfristig Wirkung zeigen, ist die Bildung von neuem Humankapital als eher langfristige Strategie angelegt. Zusammen können diese Antwortstrategien helfen, die Ausstattung Sachsens mit der knappen Ressource Humankapital langfristig zu sichern. Ein innovativer Standort mit hoch qualifizierten Arbeitskräften schafft auch Nachfrage nach gering qualifizierten Arbeitskräften. Angesichts der hohen Arbeitslosigkeit bei Geringqualifizierten, die auch durch den demographischen Wandel nicht wesentlich abgebaut wird, ist allerdings eine tief greifende Reform des Niedriglohnsektors unumgänglich.

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This book is provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series ifo Dresden Studien with number 36 and published in 2004.
Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodrs:36
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