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Arbeitsmarkteffekte und finanzpolitische Folgen der demographischen Alterung in Deutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Arnds, Pascal

    () (IZA)

  • Bonin, Holger

    () (IZA)

Abstract

Die deutsche Bevölkerung durchläuft in den nächsten Jahrzehnten einen demographischen Alterungsprozess, der als erstes die Erwerbsbevölkerung erfasst. Dieser Beitrag diskutiert die ökonomischen Folgen dieser Entwicklung. Direkte Arbeitsmarkteffekte einer schrumpfenden und alternden Erwerbsbevölkerung werden anhand der möglichen Auswirkungen auf Arbeitsproduktivität, Entlohnung und den Humankapitalbestand herausgearbeitet. Indirekte Arbeitsmarktwirkungen ergeben sich aus den fiskalischen Folgen einer steigenden Altenlast. Die Abgabenbelastung des Faktors Arbeit wird sich wegen fehlender Nachhaltigkeit der öffentlichen Haushalte und der Sozialversicherungsbudgets in Zukunft deutlich erhöhen. Wachsenden Staatsschulden in Verbindung mit rückläufiger privater Ersparnis könnten die Zunahme des Produktionspotenzials behindern. Labor Market and Fiscal Consequences of Demographic Aging in Germany Germany faces a demographic aging process which affects the working-age population first. This paper surveys some important economic consequences of this development. To assess the direct impact of an aging labor force on labor markets, we discuss possible effects on labor productivity, wages, and human capital. We also show that the fast-growing dependency ratio may affect labor markets negatively through public finances. Since government budgets are unsustainable in the long-term, the fiscal burden on labor could increase substantially. Finally, economic growth may slow down as a result of expanding public deficits in combination with falling private savings.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnds, Pascal & Bonin, Holger, 2002. "Arbeitsmarkteffekte und finanzpolitische Folgen der demographischen Alterung in Deutschland," IZA Discussion Papers 667, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp667
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    Cited by:

    1. Beate Henschel & Carsten Pohl, 2004. "Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf den Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen : Analyse und Gegenstrategien," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(03), pages 05-17, June.
    2. Marcus Dittrich & Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Henschel & Gunther Markwardt & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Marcel Thum, 2004. "Demographische Entwicklung im Freistaat Sachsen : Analyse und Strategien zum Bevölkerungsrückgang auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ; Gutachten im Auftrag der Sächsischen Staatskanzlei," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
    3. Beate Henschel & Carsten Pohl, 2004. "Die Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf den Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen – Analyse und Gegenstrategien," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(14), pages 05-14, July.
    4. Arnaud Lechevalier, 2004. "Reform des Sozialstaats in Deutschland und Frankreich: was auf dem Spiel steht (Welfare state policies in France and Germany : what is really at stake ?)," Labor and Demography 0406002, EconWPA.
    5. Ehrentraut, Oliver & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2003. "Die Rentenversicherung unter Reformdruck: Ein Drama in drei Akten," Discussion Papers 109, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Germany; labor markets; fiscal sustainability; demographic aging; survey;

    JEL classification:

    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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