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Arbeitsmarkteffekte und finanzpolitische Folgen der demographischen Alterung in Deutschland

  • Arnds, Pascal

    ()

    (IZA)

  • Bonin, Holger

    ()

    (ZEW Mannheim)

Die deutsche Bevölkerung durchläuft in den nächsten Jahrzehnten einen demographischen Alterungsprozess, der als erstes die Erwerbsbevölkerung erfasst. Dieser Beitrag diskutiert die ökonomischen Folgen dieser Entwicklung. Direkte Arbeitsmarkteffekte einer schrumpfenden und alternden Erwerbsbevölkerung werden anhand der möglichen Auswirkungen auf Arbeitsproduktivität, Entlohnung und den Humankapitalbestand herausgearbeitet. Indirekte Arbeitsmarktwirkungen ergeben sich aus den fiskalischen Folgen einer steigenden Altenlast. Die Abgabenbelastung des Faktors Arbeit wird sich wegen fehlender Nachhaltigkeit der öffentlichen Haushalte und der Sozialversicherungsbudgets in Zukunft deutlich erhöhen. Wachsenden Staatsschulden in Verbindung mit rückläufiger privater Ersparnis könnten die Zunahme des Produktionspotenzials behindern. Labor Market and Fiscal Consequences of Demographic Aging in Germany Germany faces a demographic aging process which affects the working-age population first. This paper surveys some important economic consequences of this development. To assess the direct impact of an aging labor force on labor markets, we discuss possible effects on labor productivity, wages, and human capital. We also show that the fast-growing dependency ratio may affect labor markets negatively through public finances. Since government budgets are unsustainable in the long-term, the fiscal burden on labor could increase substantially. Finally, economic growth may slow down as a result of expanding public deficits in combination with falling private savings.

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File URL: http://ftp.iza.org/dp667.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 667.

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Length: 61 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: M. Herfurth, M. Kohli and K. F. Zimmermann (eds.), Arbeit in einer alternden Gesellschaft (Labor in an Aging Society), Leverkusen: Leske+Budrich, 2003, 131-177
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp667
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