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Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie

  • Joachim Ragnitz

    ()

  • Stefan Eichler
  • Beate Grundig
  • Harald Lehmann
  • Carsten Pohl
  • Lutz Schneider
  • Helmut Seitz
  • Marcel Thum

In den neuen Bundesländern wird die Bevölkerung auch in den kommenden Jahren weiter massiv schrumpfen. Dieser absehbare Rückgang der Bevölkerung und die damit einhergehende Alterung kann die gesamtwirtschaftliche Dynamik dämpfen. Aus diesem Grund wurde im Auftrag des Bundeswirtschaftsministeriums eine Studie zu den Implikationen der demographischen Entwicklung in den neuen Bundesländern erarbeitet. Mit Blick auf den Arbeitsmarkt wurden mehrere Simulationsrechnungen bis zum Jahr 2020 durchgeführt, die zeigen, dass die zukünftige Arbeitsmarktsituation durch zwei gleichgerichtete Entwicklungen geprägt sein wird. Einerseits vermindert sich das Arbeitsangebot, andererseits führt die demographische Entwicklung auch zu einer Reduktion der Arbeitsnachfrage im Sektor nicht-handelbarer Güter. Wie sich der Arbeitsmarkt für die einzelnen Qualifikationsstufen entwickeln wird, hängt wesentlich von der Lohnentwicklung ab. Die relative Knappheit bei Hochqualifizierten dürfte auf Dauer zu Lohnsteigerungen führen, während bei anhaltender Arbeitslosigkeit in den übrigen Arbeitsmarktsegmenten kein Lohndruck nach oben entsteht.

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This book is provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series ifo Dresden Studien with number 41 and published in 2007.
Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodrs:41
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