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The fiscal impact of population change


  • Ronald D. Lee
  • Ryan D. Edwards


Population aging, and changing population age distributions, affect the fiscal situation through multiple channels, including the following: ; 1. Changing age distributions alter the per worker cost of providing a given age-vector of per capita benefits. For example, population aging will dramatically increase the costs of providing even existing benefits for Social Security and Medicare. ; 2. As a qualification to point 1, we note that fluctuations in population age distribution, for example, as caused by the baby boom in the United States, and transitional changes in age distribution, for example, as the population ages, add a dimension to the problem. Such changes can be considerably more dramatic than comparisons of steady states. They raise issues of intergenerational equity and risk-sharing.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald D. Lee & Ryan D. Edwards, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcp:y:2001:n:46:x:16

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kjetil Storesletten, 2000. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy through Immigration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 300-323, April.
    2. Vicki Freedman & Linda Martin, 1999. "The role of education in explaining and forecasting trends in functional limitations among older Americans," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(4), pages 461-473, November.
    3. Lee, Ronald & Mason, Andrew & Miller, Timothy, 2000. "From Transfers to Individual Responsibility: Implications for Savings and Capital Accumulation in Taiwan and the United States," Arbetsrapport 2000:3, Institute for Futures Studies.
    4. Tim Miller, 2001. "Increasing longevity and medicare expenditures," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(2), pages 215-226, May.
    5. Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 2001. "An International Perspective on Policies for an Aging Society," NBER Working Papers 8103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Philip Oreopoulos & Alan J. Auerbach, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May.
    7. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fehr, Hans & Habermann, Christian, 2006. "Pension reform and demographic uncertainty: the case of Germany," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 69-90, March.
    2. David Weil & Heinrich Hock, 2006. "The Dynamics of the Age Structure, Dependency, and Consumption," Working Papers 2006-08, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    3. Helmut Seitz & Dirk Freigang & Sören Högel & Gerhard Kempkes, 2007. "Die Auswirkungen der demographischen Veränderungen auf die Budgetstrukturen der öffentlichen Haushalte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(2), pages 147-164, March.
    4. Miroslav Verbič & Rok Spruk, 2014. "Aging Population and Public Pensions: Theory and Macroeconometric Evidence," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(3), pages 289-316, June.
    5. Jane Sneddon Little & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "The impact of demographic change on U. S. labor markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 47-68.
    6. Malick Souare, 2003. "Macroeconomic Implications of Population Aging and Public Pensions," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 100, McMaster University.
    7. Daniel Liviano & Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod, 2012. "Spatial Exploration of Age Distribution in Catalan Municipalities," ERSA conference papers ersa12p81, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Ronald Lee & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason, 2006. "Charting the Economic Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 12379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Verbič, Miroslav & Spruk, Rok, 2011. "Aging population and public pensions: theory and evidence," MPRA Paper 38914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Clinton Lively, 2001. "Merrill Lynch & Co.: process risk management program," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Michael Hofmann & Gerhard Kempkes & Helmut Seitz, 2008. "Demographic Change and Public Sector Budgets in a Federal System," CESifo Working Paper Series 2317, CESifo Group Munich.
    12. Jan Bonenkamp & Martijn van de Ven, 2006. "A small stochastic model of a pension fund with endogenous saving," CPB Memorandum 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    14. Seitz, Helmut & Kempkes, Gerhard, 2005. "Fiscal Federalism and Demography," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 10/05, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    15. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Eichler & Beate Henschel & Harald Lehmann & Carsten Pohl & Lutz Schneider & Helmut Seitz & Marcel Thum, 2007. "Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 41, October.
    16. Ryan D. Edwards & Ronald D. Lee & Michael W. Anderson & Shripad Tuljapurkar & Carl Boe, 2003. "Key Equations in the Tuljapurkar-Lee Model of the Social Security System," Working Papers wp044, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.

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