Demographic Change and Public Sector Budgets in a Federal System
This paper examines the effects of demographic change on public finances in a federal system. We develop a simple methodical procedure to measure the effect of demographic changes on public revenues and expenditures. We apply our method to the local, state and federal government sector as well as on the social security system in Germany. Our results suggest that demographic change will lead to significant vertical fiscal imbalances between the different layers of government. In addition we show, that subnational governments can generate a demographic dividend whereas the social security system and the federal government have to carry an additional burden due to ageing.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991.
"Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting,"
in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts - A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Working Papers 3589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational accounts: a meaningful alternative to deficit accounting," Working Paper 9103, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Echevarria, Cruz A, 1995. "On Age Distribution of Population, Government Expenditure and Fiscal Federalism," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 8(3), pages 301-13, August.
- Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Jie Zhang & Junsen Zhang, 2005. "The Effect of Life Expectancy on Fertility, Saving, Schooling and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(1), pages 45-66, 03.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
- Robin Boadway & Jean-Francois Tremblay, 2005.
"A Theory of Vertical Fiscal Imbalance,"
2006-04, University of Kentucky, Institute for Federalism and Intergovernmental Relations.
- Oded Galor, 2005.
"The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 494-504, 04/05.
- Galor, Oded, 2004. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 4714, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Oded_Galor, 2004. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," Working Papers 2004-13, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Oded Galor, 2004. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," GE, Growth, Math methods 0409005, EconWPA.
- Sanz, Ismael & Velazquez, Francisco J., 2007. "The role of ageing in the growth of government and social welfare spending in the OECD," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 917-931, December.
- George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2000. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Fiscal Developments?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(5), pages 468-488, September.
- Harris, Amy Rehder & Evans, William N. & Schwab, Robert M., 2001. "Education spending in an aging America," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 449-472, September.
- Ed Baldson & Eric Brunner, 2003.
"Intergenerational Conflict and the Political Economy of School Spending,"
2003-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Brunner, Eric & Balsdon, Ed, 2004. "Intergenerational conflict and the political economy of school spending," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 369-388, September.
- Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 2001. "An International Perspective on Policies for an Aging Society," NBER Working Papers 8103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gemma Abio Roig, 2006. "Population Ageing and the Sustainability of the Spanish National Health System: Some Financial Policy Alternatives," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 31(4), pages 557-580, October.
- Disney, Richard, 2007. "Population ageing and the size of the welfare state: Is there a puzzle to explain?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 542-553, June.
- Jane Sneddon Little & Robert K. Triest, 2001. "Seismic shifts: the economic impact of demographic change: an overview," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
- Helmut Seitz & Gerhard Kempkes, 2007. "Fiscal Federalism and Demography," Public Finance Review, , vol. 35(3), pages 385-413, May.
- Ronald D. Lee & Ryan D. Edwards, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
- Martin Werding & Anita Kaltschütz, 2005. "Modellrechnungen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 17, 7.
- Borsch-Supan, Axel, 2000. "A Model under Siege: A Case Study of the German Retirement Insurance System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F24-45, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.