IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/pubfin/v28y2000i5p468-488.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Demographic Changes Affect Fiscal Developments?

Author

Listed:
  • George Hondroyiannis

    (Bank of Greece and Harokopio University)

  • Evangelia Papapetrou

    (University of Athens)

Abstract

This article analyzes the effects of demographic changes (low fertility rates and a high old-age dependency ratio) on fiscal developments (debt, expenditure, tax revenues, social security expenditure, and social welfare revenues to GDP ratios) in Greece over the period 1960 to 1995. The empirical evidence suggests that there is a long-run relationship between each fiscal variable and the two demographic variables. The estimation results show that in the long-run the double-aging process-an increase in the old-age dependency ratio and a decrease in the fertility rate-will increase the size of public debt and total expenditure while decreasing total tax revenues. Similar results are obtained for the social security budget. Using vector error correction model estimation, the results support the proposition that the double-aging process is responsible for the deterioration of fiscal development. The results have important policy implications because the adoption of suitable policies should help improve budget developments, facilitating the real convergence of the Greek economy.

Suggested Citation

  • George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2000. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Fiscal Developments?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(5), pages 468-488, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:28:y:2000:i:5:p:468-488
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pfr.sagepub.com/content/28/5/468.abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:soinre:v:135:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1503-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mehmet Tosun, 2006. "Explaining the Variation in Tax Structures in the MENA Region," Working Papers 06-018, University of Nevada, Reno, Department of Economics;University of Nevada, Reno , Department of Resource Economics.
    3. Hondroyiannis, George & Lolos, Sarantis & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Financial markets and economic growth in Greece, 1986-1999," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 173-188, April.
    4. George Hondroyiannis & Sarantis Lolos & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2004. "Financial Markets and Economic Growth in Greece," Working Papers 17, Bank of Greece.
    5. Michael Hofmann & Gerhard Kempkes & Helmut Seitz, 2008. "Demographic Change and Public Sector Budgets in a Federal System," CESifo Working Paper Series 2317, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Wang, Qingfeng & Sun, Xu, 2016. "The Role of Socio-political and Economic Factors in Fertility Decline: A Cross-country Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 360-370.
    7. Seitz, Helmut & Kempkes, Gerhard, 2005. "Fiscal Federalism and Demography," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 10/05, Technische Universit├Ąt Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    8. repec:sek:jijoes:v:6:y:2017:i:2:p:82-99 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:28:y:2000:i:5:p:468-488. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.