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Demographie und öffentliche Haushalte: Simulationen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der gesamtstaatlichen Finanzpolitik in Deutschland

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  • Werding, Martin

Abstract

Der demographische Wandel gefährdet die langfristige Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland. Der Beitrag illustriert dies mit Hilfe langfristiger Simulationen der staatlichen Ausgaben für Alterssicherung, Gesundheit und Pflege, Arbeitslose sowie Bildung und Familien, die auf aus heutiger Sicht plausiblen Annahmen beruhen. Auch nach einer in kurz- bis mittelfristiger Perspektive erforderlichen Haushaltskonsolidierung ergibt sich bei unveränderter Fortsetzung der gegenwärtigen Politik in den betrachteten Bereichen eine Tragfähigkeitslücke in Höhe von 3,1% des BIP. Um die Lücke zu schließen, müsste der Primärsaldo im gesamtstaatlichen Haushalt ab sofort und dauerhaft in diesem Maße erhöht werden. In zahlreichen Sensitivitätsanalysen mit geänderten Annahmen, die teilweise auch den Charakter von Risikoszenarien oder Untersuchungen politischer Gegenmaßnahmen haben, variiert die Höhe der Tragfähigkeitslücke. Mit Werten zwischen 1,9% und 6,2% bleibt sie aber stets positiv.

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  • Werding, Martin, 2011. "Demographie und öffentliche Haushalte: Simulationen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der gesamtstaatlichen Finanzpolitik in Deutschland," Working Papers 03/2011, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:032011
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    1. Martin Werding & Christoph Schinke, 2014. "Sustainability of Public Finances in Germany: Simulations for the Medium and Long Run," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 64.
    2. Valentin Vogt & Jörg Althammer, 2016. "Linking Retirement Age to Life Expectancy in a Bismarckian System - The Case of Germany," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 465, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    3. Jan Valentin Vogt, 2017. "Alternating Migration Flows and their Age-Structure Effects on the Long-Term Sustainability of the German Statutory Pension Insurance," EcoMod2017 10369, EcoMod.
    4. Hackmann, Tobias & Moog, Stefan & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2011. "Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz. Update 2011: Was die Pflegereform bringen könnte - und was sie bringen sollte," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 114, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    5. Kallweit Manuel & Kohlmeier Anabell, 2014. "Zusatzbeiträge in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung / Income-independent Surcharges in German Statutory Health Insurance: Weiterentwicklungsoptionen und ihre finanziellen sowie allokativen Effekte ," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(4), pages 490-517, August.
    6. Moog, Stefan & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2012. "Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz. Update 2012: Demografie und Arbeitsmarkt," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 117, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    7. Braun, Sebastian & Friedl, Andreas & Groll, Dominik & Bachmann, Ronald & Giesecke, Matthias & Kramer, Anica & Paloyo, Alfredo & Sachs, Andreas, 2012. "Demografie und Wachstum: Die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte einer höheren Erwerbstätigkeit Älterer. Gutachten im Auftrag der Initiative Neue Soziale Marktwirtschaft (INSM) GmbH. Endbericht," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 72614.
    8. Martin Werding & Timo Hener, 2011. "Langfristige Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen: Modellrechnungen bis 2060 ; Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 53.
    9. Fenge, Robert & Peglow, François, 2018. "Decomposition of demographic effects on the german pension system," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 61-76.
    10. Ehing, Daniel & Moog, Stefan, 2012. "Erwerbspersonen- und Arbeitsvolumenprojektionen bis ins Jahr 2060," FZG Discussion Papers 51, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographischer Wandel; öffentliche Ausgaben für Alterssicherung; Gesundheit; Pflege; Arbeitslose; Bildung und Familien; Staatsverschuldung; Tragfähigkeit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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