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Sustainability of Public Finances in Germany: Simulations for the Medium and Long Run

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Werding
  • Christoph Schinke

Abstract

This report was prepared by Martin Werding, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, in cooperation with the Ifo Institute and on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Finance. It provides updated results regarding long-term trends in public expenditure to show the potential dimension of future budgetary risks. The simulations relate to public expenditure in those areas which must be expected to be particularly responsive to population ageing. The legal framework is that effective on January 1, 2013. According to the S2 indicator, the sustainability gap amounts to about 0.6 percent of GDP in the optimistic scenario and to about 3.1 percent of GDP in the pessimistic scenario. Many other indicators and results for alternative scenarios are computed.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Werding & Christoph Schinke, 2014. "Sustainability of Public Finances in Germany: Simulations for the Medium and Long Run," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 64.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:64
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifo_Forschungsberichte_64.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Martin Werding & Herbert Hofmann, 2008. "Projections Regarding the Long-term Sustainability of Public Finances," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 30.
    3. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    4. Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
    5. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2005. "Productivity, Volume 3: Information Technology and the American Growth Resurgence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 3, number 0262101114, April.
    6. Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2005. "Neuschätzung der Stillen Reserve und des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials für Westdeutschland (inkl. Berlin-West)," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200515, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(43), pages 3-77.
    8. Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2005. "Neuschätzung der Stillen Reserve und des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials für Ostdeutschland (einschl. Berlin-Ost)," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200518, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Werding, Martin, 2011. "Demographie und öffentliche Haushalte: Simulationen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der gesamtstaatlichen Finanzpolitik in Deutschland," Working Papers 03/2011, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    10. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
    11. Martin Werding & Anita Dehne, 2005. "Modellrechnungen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 17.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Raddatz, Guido, 2015. "Mehr Arbeit wagen," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 129, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    2. Werding, Martin, 2014. "Demographischer Wandel und öffentliche Finanzen: Langfrist-Projektionen 2014-2060 unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Rentenreform-Pakets der Bundesregierung," Working Papers 01/2014, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    3. Werding, Martin, 2016. "Modellrechnungen für den vierten Tragfähigkeitsbericht des BMF [Simulations for the 4th Sustainability Report]," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 20, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    4. Martin Werding & Klaus Gründler & Benjamin Läpple & Robert Lehmann & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke, 2020. "Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen: Spielt sie noch eine Rolle?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(09), pages 53-58, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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