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Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?

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  • Willi Leibfritz
  • Deborah Roseveare
  • Douglas Fore
  • Eckhard Wurzel

Abstract

The paper examines the effects of demographic changes on government budgets and national savings. Most OECD countries will experience a rapid ageing of the population in the future and this development will put public pensions, health care systems and government budgets in general under increasing pressure. It could also have adverse effects on national saving. In order to provide some idea of the scale and magnitude of potential future problems the paper presents a quantitative analysis of the effects of ageing populations on government budgets, on inter-generational equity and on national saving and it also discusses policy options to cope with these problems. The paper finds that getting general government fiscal positions into better shape over the next few years would enable governments to better cope with the demographic change that will occur in the first decades of the next century. Furthermore, it stresses that further increases in retirement ages could make a major ... Ce document examine l’incidence de l’évolution démographique sur les budgets publics et l’épargne nationale. Dans un future proche, la plupart des pays de l’OCDE vont être confrontés à un vieillissement rapide de leur population et cette évolution se traduira par des pressions accrues sur les systèmes publics de pension et de santé et plus largement sur les budgets publics. Elle pourrait aussi avoir des effets négatifs sur l’épargne nationale. Afin de donner une idée de l’échelle et de l’importance des problèmes potentiels à venir, cette étude présente une analyse quantitative des effets du vieillissement des populations sur les budgets publics, sur l’équité entre générations et sur l’épargne nationale. Elle analyse aussi les différentes options de politique économique qui pourraient permettre de faire face à ces problèmes. Il en ressort qu’améliorer les positions budgétaires au cours des prochaines années permettraient aux gouvernements de mieux faire face aux changements ...

Suggested Citation

  • Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:156-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/333823847807
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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, pages 347-386.
    2. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 73-102.
    3. Martin Werding & Christoph Schinke, 2014. "Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen: Modellrechnungen für die mittlere und lange Frist," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 64, October.
    4. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 8553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Willi Leibfritz, 1996. "Generational accounting: an international comparison," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 31(2), pages 55-61, March.
    6. DOCQUIER, Frédéric & PADDISON, Oliver, 2000. "Growth and equality effects of pension plans," CORE Discussion Papers 2000036, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    7. Josef Baumgartner & Helmut Hofer & Serguei Kaniovski & Ulrich Schuh & Thomas Url, 2006. "Employment and growth in an aging society: a simulation study for Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 19-33, March.
    8. Hofer, Helmut & Url, Thomas, 2005. "Growth Effects of Age-related Productivity Differentials in an Ageing Society. A Simulation Study for Austria," Economics Series 179, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    9. Paul Atkinson, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change: discussion," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    10. Pääkkönen, Jenni & Seppälä, Timo, 2012. "Dimensions of health care system quality in Finland," Working Papers 31, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
    11. Seitz, Helmut & Freigang, Dirk & Kempkes, Gerhard, 2005. "Demographic Change and Federal Systems: Some Preliminary Results for Germany," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/05, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    12. Manabu Shimasawa & Kazumasa Oguro & Minoru Masujima, "undated". "Population Aging, Policy Reforms, and Lifetime Net Tax Rate in Japan: A Generational Accounting Approach," Discussion papers ron258, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    13. E Philip Davis, 2005. "Challenges Posed by Ageing to Financial and Monetary Stability*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 30(4), pages 542-564, October.
    14. John McHale, 2001. "The Risk of Social Security Benefit-Rule Changes: Some International Evidence," NBER Chapters,in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 247-290 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2003. "Ageing and Fiscal Imbalances Across Generations: Concepts of Measurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 842, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Seitz, Helmut & Kempkes, Gerhard, 2005. "Fiscal Federalism and Demography," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 10/05, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    17. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Paying for pensions: how important is economic growth?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(216), pages 73-102.
    18. Ignazio Visco, 2001. "Spesa pensionistica:quanto conta la crescita economica?," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 54(215), pages 273-308.
    19. Carl E. Gjersem, 2002. "Generational Accounting in Nordic Countries," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 28, pages 3-11.
    20. Fougere, Maxime & Merette, Marcel, 1999. "Population ageing and economic growth in seven OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 411-427, August.
    21. Didier Blanchet & Florence Legros, 2002. "France: The Difficult Path to Consensual Reforms," NBER Chapters,in: Social Security Pension Reform in Europe, pages 109-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Marchon, Maurice N., 1997. "Faut-il s’inquiéter pour nos revenus de retraite?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(4), pages 643-666, décembre.

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