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The global implications of freer skilled migration

  • Rod Tyers

    ()

    (School of Economics, College of Business and Economics, Australian National University)

  • Iain Bain
  • Jahnvi Vedi

One consequence of the trade and technology driven increases in skill premia in the older industrial regions since the 1980s has been a perceived “skill shortage” in those regions, along with freer migration of skilled and professional workers from developing regions. While skilled migration flows remain too small to have large short-run effects on labour markets, a further opening to skilled migrants by the industrialised North could see substantial changes in labour markets and overall growth performance. The links between demographic change, migration flows and growth performance are here explored using a new demographic sub-model that is integrated with an adaptation of the GTAP-Dynamic global economic model in which regional households are disaggregated by age and gender. Skilled migration flows are assumed to be motivated by real wage differences to an extent that is variably constrained by immigration policies. A uniform relaxation of these constraints has most effect on labour markets in the traditional migrant destinations, Australia, Western Europe and North America, where it restrains the skill premium and substantially enhances GDP growth. The skill premium is raised, however, in regions of origin, and particularly in South Asia, although the extent of this is shown to depend sensitively on the responsiveness of skill acquisition to regional skill premia.

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Paper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number 1006.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:1006
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda
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  1. Walmsley, Terri Louise & Winters, L. Alan, 2003. "Relaxing the Restrictions on the Temporary Movements of Natural Persons: A Simulation Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 3719, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Suryahadi, A. & Chen, P. & Tyers, R., 1999. "Openness, Technological Change and Labor Demand in Pre-Crisis Indonesia," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 1999-377, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  3. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
  4. Swan, Trevor W, 2002. "Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 375-80, December.
  5. E. Berman & J. Bound & S. Machin, 1997. "Implications of skill-biased technological change: international evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20314, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Adams, Richard H. Jr., 2003. "International migration, remittances, and the brain drain ; a study of 24 labor exporting countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3069, The World Bank.
  7. Stephen Tokarick, 2002. "Quantifying the Impact of Tradeon Wages; The Role of Nontraded Goods," IMF Working Papers 02/191, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Michel Beine & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport, 2001. "Brain drain and economic growth: theory and evidence," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10449, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  9. Schiff, Maurice, 2005. "Brain gain : claims about its size and impact on welfare and growth are greatly exaggerated," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3708, The World Bank.
  10. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2006. "What Determines Immigrations' Impact? Comparing Two Global Centuries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
  12. Faini, Riccardo, 2003. "Is the Brain Drain an Unmitigated Blessing?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  13. George J. Borjas, 2003. "The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining The Impact Of Immigration On The Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1335-1374, November.
  14. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-461, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  15. Kar, Saibal & Beladi, Hamid, 2004. "Skill formation and international migration: welfare perspective of developing countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 35-54, January.
  16. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2006. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-469, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  17. Commander, Simon & Kangasniemi, Mari & Winters, L. Alan, 2003. "The Brain Drain: Curse or Boon?," IZA Discussion Papers 809, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  18. Tyers, Rod & Duncan, Ron, 1999. "Trade, Technology and Labor Markets: General Equilibrium Perspectives," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 14, pages 226-264.
  19. Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  20. Ianchovichina, Elena & Robert McDougall, 2000. "Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 480, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  21. William Carrington & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "How Big is the Brain Drain?," IMF Working Papers 98/102, International Monetary Fund.
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