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Japan's Economic Recovery: Insights from Multi-Region Dynamics

  • Rod Tyers

    (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia and Australian National University Australia)

  • Ying Zhang

    (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia)

Despite its key contribution to global economic growth through the 1960s and 1970s, in recent decades the rise of China has seen the importance of Japan recede from the public discourse. This is notwithstanding its continuing key role as global investor and trading partner. Yet this role has been threatened by a tendency for its economy to stagnate since the 1990s and by the tragic earthquake of 2011, both of which have implications for global economic performance. This paper briefly reviews the many claimed sources of Japan’s stagnation and then analyses the sources of recovery along with the implications of the 3-11 disaster, using a multi-region global dynamic model. Both demand and supply side determinants prove important though it is shown that a key future role will be played by the performance of Japan’s services sector and of the industrial policies that affect it.

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File URL: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/1857942/11-13-Japans-Economic-Recovery-Insights-from-Multi-Region-Dynamics.pdf
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Paper provided by The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion / Working Papers with number 11-13.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:11-13
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  1. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 206-235, January.
  2. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2006. "The Causes of Japan's 'Lost Decade': The Role of Household Consumption," ISER Discussion Paper 0661, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  3. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Masaru Inaba, 2006. "Business cycle accounting for the Japanese economy," 2006 Meeting Papers 313, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Bayoumi, Tamim, 2000. "The Morning After: Explaining The Slowdown In Japanese Growth In The 1990s," CEPR Discussion Papers 2436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  7. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Ian Bain, 2006. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-476, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  8. Aloy, Marcel & Gente, Karine, 2009. "The role of demography in the long-run Yen/USD real exchange rate appreciation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 654-667, December.
  9. Tamim Bayoumi & Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "The Chinese Corporate Savings Puzzle: A Firm-Level Cross-Country Perspective," Working Papers 202012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  10. Giovanni Peri, 2012. "The Effect Of Immigration On Productivity: Evidence From U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 348-358, February.
  11. Wilson, Dominic, 2000. "Japan's Slow-Down: Monetary versus Real Explanations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 18-33, Summer.
  12. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2011. "Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change and Economic Performance in China and India," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 11-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  13. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard & David A. Green, 2005. "Explaining Productivity Growth: The Role of Demographics," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 10, pages 45-58, Spring.
  14. Boltho, Andrea & Corbett, Jenny, 2000. "The Assessment: Japan's Stagnation--Can Policy Revive the Economy?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 1-17, Summer.
  15. Peter E Robertson & Jessica Y Xu, 2010. "In China's Wake: Has Asia Gained From China's Growth?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 10-15, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  16. C. Randall Henning, 2008. "Accountability and Oversight of US Exchange Rate Policy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4198.
  17. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
  18. Mitsuhiro Fukao, 2010. "Financial Crisis and Long-term Stagnation in Japan: Fiscal Consolidation under Deflationary Pressures," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2010-010, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
  19. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-461, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  20. Yasushi Hamao & Jianping Mei & Yexiao Xu, 2007. "Unique Symptoms of Japanese Stagnation: An Equity Market Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 901-923, 06.
  21. Ippei Fujiwara, 2013. "The global impact of Chinese growth," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 399, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  22. Ianchovichina, Elena & Robert McDougall, 2000. "Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 480, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  23. FUKAO Kyoji, 2010. "Service Sector Productivity in Japan: The key to future economic growth," Policy Discussion Papers 10001, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  24. Imai, Yutaka & Kawagoe, Masaaki, 2000. "Business Start-Ups in Japan: Problems and Policies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 114-23, Summer.
  25. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "Time of Troubles: The Yen and Japan's Economy, 1985-2008," NBER Working Papers 14816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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