IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Looking Inward for Transformative Growth in China

  • Rod Tyers

    ()

Export led growth has been very effective in modernising China’s economy and establishing a large high-saving middle class. Notwithstanding political opposition from trading partners, this growth strategy has also offered the rest of the world an improved terms of trade and cheaper finance. Yet it is believed by China’s government that this convenient strategy has run its course and the transition has begun to a model that “looks inward” for growth, to be driven by expanding consumption and home investment. This paper uses a numerical model of the Chinese economy with oligopoly behaviour to examine the available “inward” sources of transformative growth along with the policies needed to exploit them. Success will require the redistribution of the considerable rents now accruing to connections of key state owned enterprises, suggesting the potential for political resistance and the yet-avoidable possibility that China could fall into a “middle income trap”.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2012/152012.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2012-15.

as
in new window

Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-15
Contact details of provider: Postal: Crawford Building, Lennox Crossing, Building #132, Canberra ACT 2601
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Web page: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini & Holger C. Wolf, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," Working Papers 93-17, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Russell H. Hillberry & Edward J. Balistreri & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2007. "Structural Estimation and Solution of International Trade Models with Heterogeneous Firms," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_038, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  4. Don, H. & Gunasekera, B. H. & Tyers, Rod, 1990. "Imperfect competition and returns to scale in a newly industrialising economy : A general equilibrium analysis of Korean trade policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 223-247, November.
  5. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Iain Bain, 2007. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_014, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  6. Rod Tyers, 2012. "Japanese Economic Stagnation: Causes and Global Implications," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(283), pages 517-536, December.
  7. Richard G. Harris & Peter E. Robertson & Jessica Y. Xu, 2011. "The International Effects of China’s Growth, Trade and Education Booms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(10), pages 1703-1725, October.
  8. Rod Tyers & Ling Huang, 2009. "Combating China's Export Contraction: Fiscal Expansion or Accelerated Industrial Reform?," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2009-501, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  9. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2 Edward Elgar.
  10. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, February.
  11. Horioka, Charles Yuji & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko, 2012. "The determinants and long-term projections of saving rates in Developing Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 128-137.
  12. Vahagn Galstyan and Philip R. Lane, 2008. "The Composition of Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp257, IIIS.
  13. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2007. "Appreciating the Renminbi," Departmental Working Papers 2007-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  14. Luke Deer & Ligang Song, 2012. "China's Approach to Rebalancing: A Conceptual and Policy Framework," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(1), pages 1-26, 01.
  15. C. Fred Bergsten & Charles Freeman & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2009. "China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4341.
  16. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Data Appendix to The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Technical Appendices hayashi02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  17. Hamada, Koichi & Okada, Yasushi, 2009. "Monetary and international factors behind Japan's lost decade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 200-219, June.
  18. Rishi Goyal & Ronald McKinnon, 2003. "Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 339-363, 03.
  19. Choi, Horag & Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2008. "Endogenous discounting, the world saving glut and the U.S. current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 30-53, May.
  20. Hai Fang & Karen N. Eggleston & John A. Rizzo & Scott Rozelle & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2012. "The Returns to Education in China: Evidence from the 1986 Compulsory Education Law," NBER Working Papers 18189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Xinxin Chen & Qiuqiong Huang & Scott Rozelle & Yaojiang Shi & Linxiu Zhang, 2009. "Effect of Migration on Children's Educational Performance in Rural China," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 323-343, September.
  22. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2007. "Direct Investment, Rising Real Wages and the Absorption of Excess Labor in the Periphery," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 103-132 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Richard Harris, 1983. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," Working Papers 524, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  24. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"," NBER Working Papers 11761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Koichi Hamada & Yasushi Okada, 2009. "Monetary and international factors behind Japan's lost decade," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Easterly, William, 2001. " The Lost Decades: Developing Countries' Stagnation in Spite of Policy Reform 1980-1998," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 135-57, June.
  27. Golley, Jane & Meng, Xin, 2011. "Has China run out of surplus labour?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 555-572.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cama Admin)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.