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China: prospects for export-driven growth

Author

Listed:
  • Brendan Coates

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Dougal Horton

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Lachlan McNamee

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract

China’s rise as a merchandise exporter in recent decades is unparalleled. Supported by a rapidly growing urban workforce, massive investments in productivity enhancing infrastructure and technologies, a range of subsidies and incentives, and a favourable external economic environment, Chinese merchandise exports reached a staggering 36 per cent of China’s GDP in 2006. However, this remarkable export performance, which is somewhat exaggerated by China’s assembly role in global supply chains, is unlikely to continue, as Chinese exports reach saturation point in some export markets and domestic wages continue to rise. Instead, future export growth will increasingly be led by shifts in China’s exports towards more sophisticated goods and services as China adopts more advanced manufacturing technologies, and towards emerging economy destinations. This will underpin continued rises in China’s productivity and living standards, allowing consumer spending to become a more important internal driver of growth, as the economy reduces its reliance on export and investment demand

Suggested Citation

  • Brendan Coates & Dougal Horton & Lachlan McNamee, 2012. "China: prospects for export-driven growth," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 79-102, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:tsy:journl:journl_tsy_er_2012_4_4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Hubbard & Samuel Hurley & Dhruv Sharma, 2012. "The familiar pattern of Chinese consumption growth," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 63-78, December.
    2. Veasna Kong & Adam McKissack & Dong Zhang, 2012. "China in a new period of transition," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 42-62, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth model; export competitiveness; processing trade;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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