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Long term international GDP projections

Author

Listed:
  • Wilson Au Yeung

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Michael Kouparitsas

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Nghi Luu

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Dhruv Sharma

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract

This paper develops a framework for projecting the GDP growth of Australia’s trading partners from 2012 to 2050. The framework draws heavily on the existing conditional growth literature, including long-standing estimates of key convergence parameters. It adds to the large amount of research in this area by providing estimates of the level of long-run relative productivity for 155 countries. We use a novel non-parametric approach that combines the World Economic Forum’s ordinal measure of long-run relative productivity (the ‘Global Competiveness Index’) and actual observed productivity to produce a cardinal measure of long-run relative productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilson Au Yeung & Michael Kouparitsas & Nghi Luu & Dhruv Sharma, 2013. "Long term international GDP projections," Treasury Working Papers 2013-02, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Sep 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsy:wpaper:wpaper_tsy_wp_2013_2
    as

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    File URL: http://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2013/Long%20term%20international%20GDP%20projections/Key%20Documents/PDF/TWP_2013_2.ashx
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022," Reports 42905, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
      • Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
      • Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022," Reports 43539, Congressional Budget Office.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    6. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    7. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    8. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022," Reports 42905, Congressional Budget Office.
    9. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    10. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022," Reports 42905, Congressional Budget Office.
    11. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022," Reports 42905, Congressional Budget Office.
    12. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022," Reports 43539, Congressional Budget Office.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brendan Coates & Dougal Horton & Lachlan McNamee, 2012. "China: prospects for export-driven growth," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 79-102, December.
    2. Yu Sheng & Peter Drysdale & Chunlai Chen, 2019. "Economic Growth In China And Its Potential Impact On Australia–China Bilateral Trade: A Projection For 2025 Based On The Cge Analysis," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(04), pages 839-862, September.
    3. Wilson Au-Yeung & Alison Keys & Paul Fischer, 2012. "Australia-China: Not just 40 years," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 7-41, December.
    4. Jared Bullen & Michael Kouparitsas & Michal Krolikowski, 2014. "Long run forecasts of Australia’s terms of trade," Treasury Working Papers 2014-01, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised May 2014.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; India; conditional convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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