When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China
Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, February.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2012.
"Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects,"
Japan and the World Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 101-113.
- Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2010. "Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 220, Asian Development Bank.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010.
"Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1005-27, December.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010. "Why have economic reforms in Mexico not generated growth?," Staff Report 453, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010. "Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?," NBER Working Papers 16580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010.
"From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis,"
NBER Working Papers
15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2010.
"A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010,"
NBER Working Papers
15902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2002.
"Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 11-72
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2001. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil Seriously," NBER Working Papers 8365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brandt, Loren & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes & Zhang, Yifan, 2012.
"Creative accounting or creative destruction? Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 339-351.
- Loren Brandt & Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Yifan Zhang, 2009. "Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction? Firm-level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 15152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ricardo Hausmann & Francisco Rodríguez & Rodrigo Wagner, 2006.
Wesleyan Economics Working Papers
2006-024, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
- Robert W. Fogel, 2007. "Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations," NBER Working Papers 13184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16919. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.