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Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India

Author

Listed:
  • Petri, Peter A.

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Zhai, Fan

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

Most projections envision continued rapid growth in the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and India (collectively, ACI) over the next two decades. By 2030, they could quadruple their output, virtually eliminate extreme poverty, and dramatically transform the lives of their more than 3 billion citizens. The impact will be felt across the world. This study—a background paper to an Asian Development Bank report—used a Computable General Equilibrium model to examine the likely effects of the region's growth on trade, resources and the environment, as well as the implications of the many risks the region's growth path faces from its internal and external environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Petri, Peter A. & Zhai, Fan, 2013. "Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India," ADBI Working Papers 404, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0404
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2012. "Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 101-113.
    2. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," Development Economics Working Papers 23309, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. "Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
    4. Roland-Holst, David & Verbiest, Jean-Pierre & Zhai, Fan, 2005. "Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-term Forecasts for Regional Integration," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 76-107.
    5. Kawai, Masahiro & Zhai, Fan, 2010. "Asia’s Post-Global Financial Crisis Adjustment: A Model-Based Dynamic Scenario Analysis," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 122-151.
    6. Zhai, Fan, 2008. "Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in a Global CGE Model of Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 575-604.
    7. Angus Deaton & Alan Heston, 2010. "Understanding PPPs and PPP-Based National Accounts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-35, October.
    8. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Fan Zhai, 2012. "ASEAN Economic Community: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 93-118, June.
    9. Maxim Pinkovskiy & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2009. "Parametric Estimations of the World Distribution of Income," NBER Working Papers 15433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asean; prc; india; world economy; aci; great transformation; growth engines;

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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