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Quantifying Disruptive Trade Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Edward J. Balistreri
  • Christoph Böhringer
  • Thomas F. Rutherford

Abstract

Mainstream economic wisdom favoring cooperative free trade is challenged by a wave of disruptive trade policies. In this paper, we provide quantitative evidence concerning the economic impacts of tariffs implemented by the United States in 2018 and the subsequent retaliations by partner countries. Our analysis builds on a multi-region multi-sector general-equilibrium simulation model of the global economy that includes an innovative monopolistic-competition structure of bilateral representative firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward J. Balistreri & Christoph Böhringer & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2018. "Quantifying Disruptive Trade Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7382, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7382
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruno Lanz & Thomas F Rutherford, 2016. "GTAPinGAMS: Multiregional and Small Open Economy Models," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(2), pages 1-77, December.
    2. Robert W. Staiger & Kyle Bagwell, 1999. "An Economic Theory of GATT," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 215-248, March.
    3. Balistreri, Edward J. & Hillberry, Russell H. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2011. "Structural estimation and solution of international trade models with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 95-108, March.
    4. James R. Markusen, 2004. "Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633078.
    5. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    6. Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2012. "Subglobal carbon policy and the competitive selection of heterogeneous firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 190-197.
    7. Jaime de MELO & Sherman ROBINSON, 2015. "Product Differentiation And The Treatment Of Foreign Trade In Computable General Equilibrium Models Of Small Economies," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 2, pages 21-41 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1299-1324, November.
    9. Whaples, Robert, 1995. "Where Is There Consensus Among American Economic Historians? The Results of a Survey on Forty Propositions," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 139-154, March.
    10. repec:bla:worlde:v:41:y:2018:i:1:p:194-221 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2013. "Computing General Equilibrium Theories of Monopolistic Competition and Heterogeneous Firms," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    12. Rutherford, Thomas F, 1999. "Applied General Equilibrium Modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(1-2), pages 1-46, October.
    13. Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Poverty effects of Russia's WTO accession: Modeling “real” households with endogenous productivity effects," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 12, pages 287-306 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Jesper Jensen & David Tarr, 2014. "Trade, Exchange Rate, and Energy Pricing Reform in Iran: Potentially Large Efficiency Effects and Gains to the Poor," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 13, pages 307-326 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Balistreri, Edward J. & Markusen, James R., 2009. "Sub-national differentiation and the role of the firm in optimal international pricing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 47-62, January.
    16. repec:wsi:wschap:9789813108448_0017 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
    18. Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2017. "Trade liberalization, product variety and growth in a small open economy: a quantitative assessment," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 17, pages 389-414 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Edward J. Balistreri & Christoph Böhringer & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2018. "Carbon policy and the structure of global trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 194-221, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    applied economic analysis; multi-region models; trade policy; monopolistic competition; trade wars;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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