IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this book chapter or follow this series

Putting Services and Foreign Direct Investment with Endogenous Productivity Effects in Computable General Equilibrium Models

  • Tarr, David G.

In this chapter I explain an innovative modeling approach that incorporates services, foreign direct investment (FDI) and endogenous productivity effects from services. I begin with a small stylized model to help understand the fundamental economics. The model shows that services liberalization yields welfare gains several multiples of the welfare gains obtained from a constant to returns to scale model. Further, the welfare gains are supported by the econometric estimates of the gains from trade or FDI liberalization. I then describe computable general equilibrium studies by my colleagues and I conducted for the Russian government on the potential effects of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). We find that the projected welfare gains generated from liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment are about 5% of consumption, with the total benefits of all aspects of WTO accession being about 7% of consumption. We find that almost every household in Russia would be expected to gain from WTO accession. We show, however, that a model of Russian WTO accession that fails to incorporate FDI in services and endogenous productivity effects from additional services would yield an estimated gain of less than 1% of consumption with about 7% of the households losing. Reviews of the work have indicated that the work has had a significant influence on the public debate and helped the Russian government to steer public opinion in favor of WTO accession. In the process of doing this work, T. Rutherford and I developed a technique for incorporating tens of thousands of households as agents of the model. All of the major results in the chapter are shown to be robust under sensitivity analysis.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780444595683000067
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

as
in new window

This chapter was published in:
  • Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), 2012. "Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1, 05.
  • This item is provided by Elsevier in its series Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling with number v:1:y:2013:i:c:p:303-377.
    Handle: RePEc:eee:hacchp:v:1:y:2013:i:c:p:303-377
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://store.elsevier.com/Handbook-of-Computable-General-Equilibrium-Modeling/isbn-9780444536341/

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Nabil Annabi & Fatou Cissé & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 0512, CIRPEE.
    2. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr & Angelo Gurgel, 2014. "Trade Policy and Poverty Reduction in Brazil," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 10, pages 289-253 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Edward J. Balistreri & Russell H. Hillberry & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2008. "Structural Estimation and Solution of International Trade Models with Heterogeneous Firms," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1056, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Ivanic, Maros, 2004. "Reconciliation of the GTAP and Household Survey Data," GTAP Research Memoranda 1408, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2010. "Services Trade and Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 642-92, September.
    6. Oleksandr Shepotylo & David Tarr, 2008. "Specific Tariffs, Tariff Simplification, and the Structure of Import Tariffs in Russia, 2001-2005," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(5), pages 47-56, September.
    7. David T. Coe & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1999. "Are There International R&D Spillovers Among Randomly Matched Trade Partners? A Response to Keller," IMF Working Papers 99/18, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Tybout, James R. & Westbrook, M. Daniel, 1995. "Trade liberalization and the dimensions of efficiency change in Mexican manufacturing industries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 53-78, August.
    9. Joseph F. Francois, 1990. "Trade in Producer Services and Returns Due to Specialization under Monopolistic Competition," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 109-24, February.
    10. Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2010. "Regional Impacts of Liberalization of Barriers against Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russia's Accession to the WTO," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 30-46, 02.
    11. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan, 1993. "International R&D Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 840, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 2003. "Trade liberalization, poverty and efficient equity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 97-128, June.
    13. Paul Romer, 1989. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jensen, Jesper & Tarr, David G., 2010. "Regional trade policy options for Tanzania : the importance of services commitments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5481, The World Bank.
    15. Thomas J. Holmes, 1999. "Localization Of Industry And Vertical Disintegration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 314-325, May.
    16. Ana M. Fernandes, 2009. "Structure and performance of the service sector in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 17(3), pages 467-501, 07.
    17. Ross Levine, 2004. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    19. James R. Markusen & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Multinational Firms and The New Trade Theory," NBER Working Papers 5036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 2009. "Modeling services liberalization: The case of Kenya," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 668-679, May.
    21. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
    22. Philippa Dee & Kevin Hanslow & Tiem Phamduc, 2003. "Measuring the Cost of Barriers to Trade in Services," NBER Chapters, in: Trade in Services in the Asia Pacific Region, NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics (EASE), Volume 11, pages 11-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    24. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    25. Hansen, Terje & Koopmans, Tjalling C., 1972. "On the definition and computation of a capital stock invariant under optimization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 487-523, December.
    26. Fink, Carsten & Mattoo, Aaditya & Neagu, Ileana Cristina, 2005. "Assessing the impact of communication costs on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 428-445, December.
    27. David T. Coe & Elhanan Helpman & Alexander Hoffmaister, 1995. "North-South R&D Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 5048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Konan Denise Eby & MASKUS Keith E., . "Quantifying the Impact of Services Liberalization in a Developing Country," EcoMod2002 330800043, EcoMod.
    29. Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Markusen, James R. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 1994. "Complementarity and increasing returns in intermediate inputs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 101-119, October.
    30. L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March.
    31. Jesper Jensen & David Tarr, 2008. "Impact of Local Content Restrictions and Barriers Against Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Kazakhstan's Accession to the World Trade Organization," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(5), pages 5-26, September.
    32. Lejour, Arjan & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo & Verweij, Gerard, 2008. "Opening services markets within Europe: Modelling foreign establishments in a CGE framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1022-1039, September.
    33. Paul M. Romer, 1993. "New Goods, Old Theory, and the Welfare Costs of Trade Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 4452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. François Bourguignon & Maurizio Bussolo & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Tools," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6586.
    35. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2003. "Regulation and Investment," NBER Working Papers 9560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    37. Jensen, Jesper & Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David, 2004. "The impact of liberalizing barriers to foreign direct investment in services - the case of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3391, The World Bank.
    38. Robert C. Feenstra & Madani & Dorsati & Yang & Tzu-Han & Liang & Chi-Yuan, . "Testing Endogenous Growth In South Korea And Taiwan," Department of Economics 97-16, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    39. Sherman Robinson & Zhi Wang & Will Martin, 2002. "Capturing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 3-33.
    40. Arnold, Jens Matthias & Mattoo, Aaditya & Narciso, Gaia, 2006. "Services inputs and firm productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa : evidence from firm-level data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4048, The World Bank.
    41. Fernandes, Ana M. & Paunov, Caroline, 2012. "Foreign direct investment in services and manufacturing productivity: Evidence for Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 305-321.
    42. Arnold, Jens Matthias & Javorcik, Beata & Lipscomb, Molly & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2012. "Services reform and manufacturing performance : evidence from India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5948, The World Bank.
    43. Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer & Bart van Ark, 2008. "Market services productivity across Europe and the US," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 139-194, 01.
    44. van Ark, Bart, 1998. "Productivity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 171-174, June.
    45. Jensen, Jesper & Tarr, David G., 2011. "Deep trade policy options for Armenia: The importance of trade facilitation, services and standards liberalization," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-33, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    46. Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 2008. "Poverty effects of Russia's WTO accession: Modeling "real" households with endogenous productivity effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 131-150, May.
    47. Brown, Drusilla K & Stern, Robert M, 2001. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 262-86, May.
    48. Markusen, James R., 1990. "Derationalizing tariffs with specialized intermediate inputs and differentiated final goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 375-383, May.
    49. Markusen, James & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David, 2000. "Foreign direct investment in services and the domestic market for expertise," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2413, The World Bank.
    50. Moriarity, Chris & Scheuren, Fritz, 2003. "A Note on Rubin's Statistical Matching Using File Concatenation with Adjusted Weights and Multiple Imputations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 65-73, January.
    51. Antonio Ciccone & Robert E. Hall, 1993. "Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 4313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Cockburn, John, 2007. "Trade reform and poverty--Lessons from the Philippines: A CGE-microsimulation analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 141-163.
    53. Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1299-1324, November.
    54. Rutherford, Thomas F, 1999. "Applied General Equilibrium Modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(1-2), pages 1-46, October.
    55. Wolfgang Keller, 1999. "How Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 6990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    56. Christian Broda & David W. Weinstein, 2004. "Variety Growth and World Welfare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 139-144, May.
    57. Eschenbach, Felix & Hoekman, Bernard, 2005. "Services policy reform and economic growth in transition economies, 1990-2004," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3663, The World Bank.
    58. Arnold, Jens & Javorcik, Beata S. & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2007. "Does services liberalization benefit manufacturing firms ? Evidence from the Czech Republic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4109, The World Bank.
    59. Walmsley, Terrie L. & Winters, L. Alan, 2005. "Relaxing the Restrictions on the Temporary Movement of Natural Persons: A Simulation Analysis," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 20, pages 688-726.
    60. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1996. "Economic implications for Turkey of a customs union with the European Union," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1599, The World Bank.
    61. G. Tarr, David & F. Rutherford, Thomas, 2010. "Modeling Services Liberalization: The Case of Tanzania," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 644-675.
    62. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 9305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    63. Ethier, Wilfred J., 1984. "Higher dimensional issues in trade theory," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 131-184 Elsevier.
    64. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "Poverty effects of Russia's WTO accession : modeling"real"households and endogenous productivity effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3473, The World Bank.
    65. Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1998. "Trade liberalization and endogenous growth in a small open economy : a quantitative assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1970, The World Bank.
    66. Bourguignon, Francois & de Melo, Jaime & Morrisson, Christian, 1991. "Poverty and income distribution during adjustment: Issues and evidence from the OECD project," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(11), pages 1485-1508, November.
    67. Ianchovichina, Elena & Martin, William, 2003. "Economic impacts of China's accession to the World Trade Organization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3053, The World Bank.
    68. Mattoo, Aaditya & Rathindran, Randeep, 2006. "Measuring Services Trade Liberalization and Its Impact on Economic Growth: An Illustration," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 64-98.
    69. Markusen, James R, 1989. "Trade in Producer Services and in Other Specialized Intermediate Inputs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 85-95, March.
    70. James R. Markusen & Anthony J. Venables, 1996. "The Theory of Endowment, Intra-Industry, and Multinational Trade," NBER Working Papers 5529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    71. Robert Feenstra & Hiau Looi Kee, 2004. "On the Measurement of Product Variety in Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 145-149, May.
    72. David G. Tarr & Peter D. Thomson, 2004. "The Merits of Dual Pricing of Russian Natural Gas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1173-1194, 08.
    73. Balistreri , Edward J. & Tarr, David G., 2011. "Services liberalization in preferential trade arrangements : the case of Kenya," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5552, The World Bank.
    74. Oleksandr Shepotylo & Volodymyr Vakhitov, 2011. "Impact of services liberalization on productivity of manufacturing firms: evidence from Ukrainian firm-level data," Discussion Papers 45, Kyiv School of Economics.
    75. James Markusen & Thomas Rutherford & David Tarr, 2005. "Trade and direct investment in producer services and the domestic market for expertise," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 758-777, August.
    76. Chris Elbers & Jean O. Lanjouw & Peter Lanjouw, 2003. "Micro--Level Estimation of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 355-364, January.
    77. Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 2002. "Trade liberalization, product variety and growth in a small open economy: a quantitative assessment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 247-272, March.
    78. Harrison, Glenn W & Rutherford, Thomas F & Tarr, David G, 1997. "Quantifying the Uruguay Round," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1405-30, September.
    79. Falvey, Rod & Foster, Neil & Greenaway, David, 2004. "Imports, exports, knowledge spillovers and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 209-213, November.
    80. Francois, Joseph F, 1990. "Producer Services, Scale, and the Division of Labor," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 715-29, October.
    81. Maurice Schiff & Yanling Wang, 2006. "North-South and South-South trade-related technology diffusion: an industry-level analysis of direct and indirect effects," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(3), pages 831-844, August.
    82. Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2003. "Regional Trading Arrangements for Chile: do the Results Differ with a Dynamic Model?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 94-95, pages 261-281.
    83. Joseph Francois & Hans Van Meijl & Frank Van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 349-391, 04.
    84. David Hummels & Volodymyr Lugovskyy, 2005. "Trade in Ideal Varieties: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    85. Jesper Jensen & David Tarr, 2003. "Trade, Exchange Rate, and Energy Pricing Reform in Iran: Potentially Large Efficiency Effects and Gains to the Poor," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 543-562, November.
    86. Felix Eschenbach & Bernard Hoekman, 2006. "Services Policy Reform and Economic Growth in Transition Economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(4), pages 746-764, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:hacchp:v:1:y:2013:i:c:p:303-377. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.