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Opening Services Markets within Europe: Modelling Foreign Establishments in a CGE Framework

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  • Hugo ROJAS-ROMAGOSA
  • Arjan LEJOUR
  • Gerard VERWEIJ

Abstract

In services, the activities of foreign affiliates often exceed the value of cross-border trade. A complete analysis of services liberalisation therefore requires the modelling of FDI. This paper presents the treatment of FDI in our CGE model WorldScan based on the ideas of Petri (1997) and Markusen (2002). They assume that firms establishing affiliates abroad also transfer firm-specific knowledge. Consequently, capital and products differ from existing capital and products in the host country. As an illustration, we apply this model to assess the proposals of the European Commission to open up services markets. FDI in services could increase by 20% to 35%. However, the overall economic impact is limited. Our assessment suggests that GDP in the EU25 could increase up to 0.4%. These effects could be up to 0.8% higher if foreign capital also increases the overall productivity of the services sector.
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  • Hugo ROJAS-ROMAGOSA & Arjan LEJOUR & Gerard VERWEIJ, 2008. "Opening Services Markets within Europe: Modelling Foreign Establishments in a CGE Framework," EcoMod2008 23800117, EcoMod.
  • Handle: RePEc:ekd:000238:23800117
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James R. Markusen, 2004. "Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633078.
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    11. Nico van Leeuwen & Arjan Lejour, 2006. "Bilateral FDI Stocks by sector," CPB Memorandum 164, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "The impact on Russia of WTO accession and the Doha agenda : the importance of liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in services for growth and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3725, The World Bank.
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    14. de Bruijn, Roland & Kox, Henk & Lejour, Arjan, 2008. "Economic benefits of an Integrated European Market for Services," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 301-319.
    15. Arjan Lejour & Henk Kox & Roland de Bruijn, 2006. "The trade-induced effects of the Services Directive and the country of origin principle," CPB Document 108, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour, 2006. "The Effects of the Services Directive on Intra-eu Trade and fdi," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(4), pages 747-769.
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    19. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2006. "Productivity Effects of FDI Inflows: A Literature Review," CPB Memorandum 170, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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    21. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour & Raymond Montizaan, 2004. "The free movement of services within the EU," CPB Document 69, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ziliang Deng & Rod Falvey & Adam Blake, 2013. "Quantifying Foreign Direct Investment Productivity Spillovers in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Model," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 369-389, December.
    2. Jin, Wei, 2016. "International technology diffusion, multilateral R&D coordination, and global climate mitigation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 357-372.
    3. Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2010. "Services Trade and Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 642-692, September.
    4. Lakatos, Csilla & Walmsley, Terrie, 2012. "Investment creation and diversion effects of the ASEAN–China free trade agreement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 766-779.
    5. Christen, Elisabeth & Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard, 2013. "Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Market Access in Services," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1601-1643, Elsevier.
    6. Arjan Lejour & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment in Applied General Equilibrium Models: Overview of the Literature," CPB Memorandum 169, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Tarr, David G., 2013. "Putting Services and Foreign Direct Investment with Endogenous Productivity Effects in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 303-377, Elsevier.
    8. Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard & David Laborde, 2012. "A Foreign Direct Investment database for global CGE models," Working Papers 2012-08, CEPII research center.
    9. Maryla Maliszewska & Irina Orlova & Svitlana Taran, 2009. "Deep Integration with the EU and its Likely Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia," CASE Network Reports 0088, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    10. Christen, Elisabeth & Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard, 2012. "CGE modeling of market access in services," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6106, The World Bank.
    11. Nilsson, Lars, 2019. "Reflections on the economic modelling of free trade agreements," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2019-2, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
    12. Pelkmans, Jacques & Lejour, Arjan & Schrefler, Lorna & Mustilli, Federica & Timini, Jacopo, 2014. "The Impact of TTIP: The underlying economic model and comparisons," CEPS Papers 9710, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    13. Jin, Wei, 2015. "Can China harness globalization to reap domestic carbon savings? Modeling international technology diffusion in a multi-region framework," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 64-82.
    14. Li, Qiaomin & Scollay, Robert & Gilbert, John, 2017. "Analyzing the effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on FDI in a CGE framework with firm heterogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 409-420.
    15. Anwar, Sajid, 2009. "Sector specific foreign investment, labour inflow, economies of scale and welfare," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 626-630, May.
    16. Deng, Ziliang & Falvey, Rod & Blake, Adam, 2012. "Trading market access for technology? Tax incentives, foreign direct investment and productivity spillovers in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 675-690.
    17. Lakatos, Csilla & Fukui, Tani, 2014. "The Liberalization of Retail Services in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 327-340.
    18. Paul De Boer & Richard Paap, 2009. "Testing non‐nested demand relations: linear expenditure system versus indirect addilog," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 63(3), pages 368-384, August.
    19. Wei Jin, 2012. "International Knowledge Spillover and Technology Externality: Why Multilateral R&D Coordination Matters for Global Climate Governance," CAMA Working Papers 2012-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Ziliang Deng & Adam Blake & Rod Falvey, 2009. "Quantifying Foreign Direct Investment Productivity Spillovers: A Computable General Equilibrium Framework for China," Discussion Papers 09/18, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    21. Wei Jin, 2012. "Can China Harness Globalization to Reap Carbon Savings? Modeling International Technology Diffusion in a Multi-region Framework," CAMA Working Papers 2012-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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