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Quantifying Disruptive Trade Policies

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  • Balistreri, Edward J.

    (Iowa State U)

  • Bohringer, Christoph

    (U of Oldenburg)

  • Rutherford, Thomas F.

    (U of Wisconsin)

Abstract

Mainstream economic wisdom favoring cooperative free trade is challenged by a wave of disruptive trade policies. In this paper, we provide quantitative evidence concerning the economic impacts of tariffs implemented by the United States in 2018 and the subsequent retaliations by partner countries. Our analysis builds on a multi-region multi-sector general-equilibrium simulation model of the global economy that includes an innovative monopolistic-competition structure of bilateral representative firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Balistreri, Edward J. & Bohringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2018. "Quantifying Disruptive Trade Policies," Staff Paper Series 592, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:wisagr:592
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    4. Edward Balistreri & Felix Baquedano & John C. Beghin, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 and associated policy responses on global food security," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(6), pages 855-869, November.
    5. Lionel Fontagné & Cecilia Bellora, 2019. "Shooting oneself in the foot? US trade policy coping with Global Value Chains," Post-Print hal-02128135, HAL.
    6. Lee, Meongsu & Westhoff, Patrick, 2020. "The U.S.-China Trade war and Impact on Land Returning to Soybean Production from the Conservation Reserve Program," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304518, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Rita Cappariello & Sebastian Franco-Bedoya & Vanessa Gunnella & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2020. "Rising protectionism and global value chains: quantifying the general equilibrium effects," CEP Discussion Papers dp1682, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Edward J. Balistreri, 2019. "International Trade Policy: Insights from a General-equilibrium Approach," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-winter-2019-4, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    9. Terrie Walmsley & Peter Minor, 2020. "US Trade Actions Against China: A Supply Chain Perspective," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 55(3), pages 337-371, August.
    10. Edward J. Balistreri & Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2021. "Economic Impacts of Investment Facilitation," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 21-wp615, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    11. Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné, 2019. "Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-18, CEPII research center.
    12. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2019. "Global adjustment to US disengagement from the world trading system," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 522-536.
    13. Jie Wu & Jacob Wood & Xianhai Huang, 2021. "How does GVC reconstruction affect economic growth and employment? Analysis of USA–China decoupling," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 35(1), pages 67-81, May.
    14. Jie Wu & Jacob Wood & Keunyeob Oh & Haejin Jang, 2021. "Evaluating the cumulative impact of the US–China trade war along global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(12), pages 3516-3533, December.
    15. James A. Giesecke & Nhi H. Tran & Robert Waschik, 2021. "Should Australia be concerned by Beijing’s trade threats: modelling the economic costs of a restriction on imports of Australian coal," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 1-22, January.
    16. Bekkers, Eddy & Schroeter, Sofia, 2020. "An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    17. Meinen, Philipp & Schulte, Patrick & Cigna, Simone & Steinhoff, Nils, 2019. "The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?," Discussion Papers 46/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2020. "Share price reactions to tariff imposition announcements in the Trump era - An event study of the trade conflict," Working Papers Dissertations 59, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    19. Lashkaripour, Ahmad, 2021. "The cost of a global tariff war: A sufficient statistics approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    20. Simone Cigna & Philipp Meinen & Patrick Schulte & Nils Steinhoff, 2022. "The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 162-173, January.
    21. John M. Crespi & Tina L. Saitone, 2019. "Has Specialization Put a Limit on How Far Cattle Contracting Can Go?," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-winter-2019-1, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    22. Ilaria Fusacchia, 2020. "Evaluating the Impact of the US–China Trade War on Euro Area Economies: A Tale of Global Value Chains," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 6(3), pages 441-468, November.
    23. Ken Itakura, 2020. "Evaluating the Impact of the US–China Trade War," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 77-93, January.
    24. Shantayanan Devarajan & Delfin S. Go & Csilla Lakatos & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2021. "Traders' dilemma: Developing countries' response to trade wars," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 856-878, April.
    25. Minghao Li & Tao Xiong & Yongjie Ji & Dermot J. Hayes & Wendong Zhang, 2019. "African Swine Fever in China: An Update," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-winter-2019-2, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.

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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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