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The trade-induced effects of the Services Directive and the country of origin principle

  • Arjan Lejour


  • Henk Kox


  • Roland de Bruijn

The proposed Services Directive by the European Commission could increase intra European trade in commercial services by 30 to 60 percent. This paper analyses the welfare effects of the trade growth using an applied general equilibrium model WorldScan. Read also the accompanying press release .It shows that GDP could be raised by 0.3 to 0.7 percent and consumption by 0.5 to 1.2 percent in the European Union as a whole. These results could only be realised if the Services Directive is implemented including the country of origin principle. If this principle is excluded from the directive, trade increases only by 20 to 40 percent. The trade-induced welfare effects are correspondingly lower. GDP could rise by 0.2 to 0.4 percent and consumption by 0.3 to 0.7 percent in the EU as a whole. The country-specific effects vary: most of the new Member States will experience larger gains than the average Member State because their services trade is now still hampered by relatively large regulatory barriers in these countries.

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Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Document with number 108.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpb:docmnt:108
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  1. Henk. L.M. Kox & Arjan Lejour & Raymond Montizaan, 2004. "Intra-EU trade and investment in service sectors, and regulation patterns," International Trade 0412002, EconWPA.
  2. Ruud de Mooij & Paul Tang, 2003. "Four futures of Europe," CPB Special Publication 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Jensen, Jesper & Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David, 2004. "The impact of liberalizing barriers to foreign direct investment in services - the case of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3391, The World Bank.
  4. Nicoletti, Giuseppe & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2003. "Regulation, productivity, and growth : OECD evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2944, The World Bank.
  5. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Stefano Scarpetta & Dirk Pilat, 1996. "Mark-Up Ratios in Manufacturing Industries: Estimates for 14 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 162, OECD Publishing.
  6. Paul Conway & Véronique Janod & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 2005. "Product Market Regulation in OECD Countries: 1998 to 2003," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 419, OECD Publishing.
  7. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour & Raymond Montizaan, 2004. "The free movement of services within the EU," CPB Document 69, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  8. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Steve Golub & Dana Hajkova & Daniel Mirza & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2003. "Policies and International Integration: Influences on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 359, OECD Publishing.
  9. Roland de Bruijn, 2006. "Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition in WorldScan," CPB Memorandum 140, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  10. Arjan Lejour, 2003. "Quantifying four scenarios for Europe," CPB Document 38, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  11. George Gelauff & Arjan Lejour, 2006. "Five Lisbon highlights; the economic impact of reaching these targets," CPB Document 104, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  12. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU enlargement: economic implications for countries and industries," CPB Document 11, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  13. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour, 2005. "Regulatory heterogeneity as obstacle for international services trade," CPB Discussion Paper 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  14. Giuseppe Nicoletti, 2001. "Regulation in Services: OECD Patterns and Economic Implications," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 287, OECD Publishing.
  15. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  16. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta & Olivier Boylaud, 2000. "Summary Indicators of Product Market Regulation with an Extension to Employment Protection Legislation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 226, OECD Publishing.
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