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Four futures of Europe


  • Ruud de Mooij


  • Paul Tang



Europe is at a crossroads. The enlargement with ten new members forces the European Union to reform its decision making process and to reconsider its policies. At the same time, developments such as ageing force EU member states to reform their welfare states. Read also the accompanying press release . Where will this bring the European Union and its members states ten or twenty years from now? And how should policy makers deal with this uncertainty when deciding about policies with long-lasting consequences? This study develops four scenarios on the future of Europe. They serve as tools for analysing these questions. Moreover, the study elaborates on the policy agenda of international organisations and European governments in response to the various challenges during the next two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruud de Mooij & Paul Tang, 2003. "Four futures of Europe," CPB Special Publication 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpb:spcial:49

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Alfons Weichenrieder, 1996. "Fighting international tax avoidance," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 37-58, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Henri L.F. de Groot & Richard Nahuis & Paul J.G. Tang & John Fitz Gerald, 2006. "Is the American Model Miss World? Choosing Between the Anglo-Saxon Model and a European-Style Alternative," Chapters,in: Competitiveness and Growth in Europe, chapter 6 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Christian Dreger & Manuel Artís & Rosina Moreno & Raúl Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2007. "Study on the feasibility of a tool to measure the macroeconomic impact of structural reforms," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 272, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. George Gelauff & Herman Stolwijk & Paul Veenendaal, 2005. "Europe's financial perspectives in perspective," CPB Document 101, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Jansen, Jaap C. & Seebregts, Ad J., 2010. "Long-term energy services security: What is it and how can it be measured and valued?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1654-1664, April.
    5. Arjan Lejour, 2003. "Quantifying four scenarios for Europe," CPB Document 38, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Frits Bos & Rudy Douven & Esther Mot, 2004. "Four scenarios for the future of the public sector and healthcare," CPB Document 72, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Wim Suyker & Henri de Groot & P. Buitelaar, 2007. "India and the Dutch economy; stylised facts and prospects," CPB Document 155, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Carel Eijgenraam, 2006. "Optimal safety standards for dike-ring areas," CPB Discussion Paper 62, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. George Gelauff & Sjef Ederveen & J.L.M. Pelkmans, 2006. "Assessing subsidiarity," CPB Document 133, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud A. de Mooij, 2004. "Turkish Delight – Does Turkey’s accession to the EU bring economic benefits?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1183, CESifo Group Munich.
    11. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Clem Capel, 2004. "Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU," CPB Document 56, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Ruud de Mooij, 2004. "Towards efficient unemployment insurance in the Netherlands," CPB Memorandum 100, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Wim Suyker & Henri de Groot, 2006. "China and the Dutch economy," CPB Document 127, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    14. Bert Smid, 2006. "Athena; a multi-sector model of the Dutch economy," CPB Document 105, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    15. de Bruijn, Roland & Kox, Henk & Lejour, Arjan, 2008. "Economic benefits of an Integrated European Market for Services," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 301-319.
    16. Nijkamp, Peter & van Hemert, Patricia, 2007. "Going for Growth; a Theoretical and Policy Framework," Papers DYNREG14, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Arjan Lejour & Henk Kox & Roland de Bruijn, 2006. "The trade-induced effects of the Services Directive and the country of origin principle," CPB Document 108, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Gelauff, George & Lejour, Arjan, 2006. "The new Lisbon Strategy: An estiamtion of the impact of reaching 5 Lisbon targets," MPRA Paper 16168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Wim Suyker, 2007. "The Chinese economy, seen from Japan and the Netherlands," CPB Memorandum 185, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    20. Kuhlman, Tom & van Tongeren, Frank W. & Helming, John F.M. & Tabeau, Andrzej A. & Gaaff, Aris & Groeneveld, Rolf A. & Koole, Boudewijn & Verhoog, A. David & Dekkers, Jasper, 2006. "Future land-use change in the Netherlands: an analysis based on a chain of models," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 55(5/6).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • P5 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems

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