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Implications of the Doha Round negotiations in services for Poland

Using a computable general equilibrium model we assess the effects of services trade liberalization in Poland and its major trading partners in the context of the WTO Doha Round negotiations and the ongoing process of trade liberalization within the enlarged European Union. The paper provides a thorough descriptive analysis of the data on trade in services. It gives a complete picture of the sectoral and geographical structure of Poland’s trade in services in 2007. We also provide an analysis of revealed comparative advantage indices based on sectoral data. The review of literature is focused on a discussion of the methodology for assessing the barriers to trade in services. The core of the paper consists of a CGE simulation using the GTAP model. We employ the Hoekman (1995) tariff equivalents as a proxy for the initial level of trade barriers. Our four scenarios include those of complete liberalization, EU-only liberalization and two intermediate scenarios. The most optimistic scenario is expected to bring a 0.9% increase in Polish GDP and welfare improvement of close to 0.8% of GDP value. However, more than half of this gain is attributed to the liberalization within the EU that is bound to happen independently from the Doha process.

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File URL: http://www.bankikredyt.nbp.pl/content/2010/01/bik_01_2010_01_art.pdf
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Article provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its journal Bank i Kredyt.

Volume (Year): 41 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 5-30

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Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:41:y:2010:i:1:p:5-30
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  1. Hoekman, Bernard, 2006. "Trade in Services, Trade Agreements and Economic Development: A Survey of the Literature," CEPR Discussion Papers 5760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. McDougall, Robert, 2000. "A New Regional Household Demand System for GTAP," GTAP Working Papers 404, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  3. John Whalley, 2003. "Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalization in Services Trade," NBER Working Papers 10181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Keith Walsh, 2006. "Trade in Services: Does Gravity Hold? A Gravity Model Approach to Estimating Barriers to Services Trade," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp183, IIIS.
  5. Arjan Lejour & Henk Kox & Roland de Bruijn, 2006. "The trade-induced effects of the Services Directive and the country of origin principle," CPB Document 108, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  6. Mattoo, Aaditya, 2005. "Services in a development round : three goals and three proposals," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3718, The World Bank.
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