How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?
Computable General Equilibrium models, widely used for the analysis of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are often criticized for having poor econometric foundations. This paper improves the linkage between econometric estimates of key parameters and their usage in CGE analysis in order to better evaluate the likely outcome of a FTA for the Americas. Our econometric work focuses on estimation of the elasticity of substitution among imports from different countries, which is especially critical for evaluating the positive and normative outcomes of FTAs. We match the data in the econometric exercise to the policy experiment at hand. Then we sample from the distribution of parameter values given by our econometric estimates in order to generate a distribution of model results, from which we can construct confidence intervals. We conclude that there is great potential for combining econometric work with CGE-based policy analysis in order to produce a richer set of results that are likely to prove more satisfying to the sophisticated policy maker.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diao, Xinshen, 2001. "A Dynamic Evaluation of the Effects of A Free Trade Area of the Americas -An Intertemporal, Global General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 21-47.
- Levinsohn, James, 1993.
"Testing the imports-as-market-discipline hypothesis,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 1-22, August.
- James Levinsohn, 1991. "Testing the Imports-as-Market-Discipline Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 3657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Levinsohn, J., 1991. "Testing the Imports-As-Market-Discipline Hypothesis," Working Papers 272, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- John Whalley, 1984. "Trade Liberalization among Major World Trading Areas," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262231204.
- Arndt, Channing, 1996. "An Introduction to Systematic Sensitivity Analysis via Gaussian Quadrature," GTAP Technical Papers 305, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
- W. Jill Harrison & K.R. Pearson, 1994. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-64, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- Chris M. Alaouze, 1977. "Estimates of the elasticity of substitution between imported and domestically produced goods classified at the input-output level of aggregation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers o-13, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- Touhami Abdelkhalek & Jean-Marie Dufour, 1998. "Statistical Inference For Computable General Equilibrium Models, With Application To A Model Of The Moroccan Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 520-534, November.
- ABDELKHALEK, Touhami & DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy," Cahiers de recherche 9713, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Liu, Jing & Arndt, Channing, 2004. "Parameter Estimation and Measures of Fit in A Global, General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 626-649.
- Liu, Jing & Channing Arndt & Thomas Hertel, 2003. "Parameter Estimation and Measures of Fit in A Global, General Equilibrium Model," GTAP Working Papers 1200, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- DeVuyst, Eric A. & Preckel, Paul V., 1997. "Sensitivity analysis revisited: A quadrature-based approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 175-185, April.
- Hummels, David, 1999. "Toward a Geography of Trade Costs," GTAP Working Papers 1162, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Chris M. Alaouze & John S. Marsden & John Zeitsch, 1977. "Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution Between Imported and Domestically Produced Commodities at the Four Digit ASIC Level," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers o-11, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- McDougall, Robert, 2000. "A New Regional Household Demand System for GTAP," GTAP Working Papers 404, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- McDougall, Robert, 2002. "A New Regional Household Demand System for GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 942, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates in the GTAP Data Base," GTAP Technical Papers 315, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Wigle, Randall M, 1991. "The Pagan-Shannon Approximation: Unconditional Systematic Sensitivity in Minutes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 35-49.
- Gallaway, Michael P. & McDaniel, Christine A. & Rivera, Sandra A., 2003. "Short-run and long-run industry-level estimates of U.S. Armington elasticities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 49-68, March.
- Andrew B Bernard & J Bradford Jensen, 2001. "Exporting and Productivity: The Importance of Reallocation," Working Papers 01-02, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2005. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 704-723, June.
- Pagan, A R & Shannon, J H, 1987. "How Reliable Are ORAN I Conclusions?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 63(180), pages 33-45, March.
- McKitrick, Ross R., 1998. "The econometric critique of computable general equilibrium modeling: the role of functional forms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 543-573, October.
- Mary Hallward-Driemeier & Giuseppe Iarossi & Kenneth L. Sokoloff, 2002. "Exports and Manufacturing Productivity in East Asia: A Comparative Analysis with Firm-Level Data," NBER Working Papers 8894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baldwin, Richard E. & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Regional economic integration," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1597-1644 Elsevier.
- Harrison, Glenn W & Vinod, H D, 1992. "The Sensitivity Analysis of Applied General Equilibrium Models: Completely Randomized Factorial Sampling Designs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 357-362, May.
- Harrison, Glenn W. & Jones, Richard & Kimbell, Larry J. & Wigle, Randal, 1993. "How robust is applied general equilibrium analysis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 99-115, February.
- Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, November.
- Ianchovichina, Elena & Binkley, James & Hertel, Thomas, 2000. "Procompetitive Effects of Foreign Competition on Domestic Markups," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 134-148, February. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:24:y:2007:i:4:p:611-635. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.