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Los acuerdos comerciales de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú con los Estados Unidos: efectos sobre el comercio, la producción y el bienestar
[Trade agreements by Colombia, Ecuador and Peru with the United States: effects on trade, production and welfare]

Author

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  • Durán Lima, José Elías
  • De Miguel, Carlos J.
  • Schushny, Andrés

Abstract

The Computable General Equilibrium model, based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, is used to evaluate the impact of separate bilateral free trade agreements by Colombia, Ecuador and Peru with the United States of America (USA). As the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) is to expire shortly, a number of different scenarios have been analyzed: full liberalization, liberalization excluding sensitive products and non-conclusion of agreements. Signature of the agreements would lead to a widespread increase in trade among the negotiating countries to the detriment of their Andean partners. While the effects on welfare would benefit only the United States and Peru, from the capital accumulation standpoint they are clearly positive for all countries. Research shows that, while these agreements would not be enough on their own to trigger a process of sustained development, an active economic and social policy could usefully tap their potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Durán Lima, José Elías & De Miguel, Carlos J. & Schushny, Andrés, 2006. "Los acuerdos comerciales de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú con los Estados Unidos: efectos sobre el comercio, la producción y el bienestar [Trade agreements by Colombia, Ecuador and Peru with the United ," MPRA Paper 10873, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Apr 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10873
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Treaties; Free trade; Trade negotiations; Social welfare; Economic analysis; Andean region; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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